Tag: 2019 SP+ ratings

Ohio State finishes season at No. 1 in ESPN’s FPI and SP+ rankings

The Ohio State Buckeyes were the best team over the course of the 2019-20 college football season according to ESPN’s SP+ power ratings

The Ohio State Buckeyes were the best team over the course of the 2019-20 college football season, according to ESPN’s SP+ power ratings.

Before fans of Ohio State or LSU overreact to this, let’s break down exactly what it means.

SP+ doesn’t try to crown a national champion. It doesn’t react to who wins games. Instead, it judges teams on a play-by-play and possession-by-possession metric. In other words, it looks at the factors behind who won a football game to see how each team performed in the stats that are easiest to replicate. Using that, it looks forward to predict who will likely win games in the future.

This shouldn’t be too surprising. LSU had multiple close calls over the course of the season (Texas, Auburn) and was statistically weak on defense at times during the season. That’s why ESPN’s FPI rankings also put Ohio State as the best team over the course of the 2019 season.

What LSU did better than everyone else, by far, was peak at the right time. We can see this most clearly in the Sagarin ratings, another power rating that operates on similar principles.

Over the course of the season, Ohio State has the best power rating in the country. In the Predictor rating, Ohio State is a full five points clear of No. 2 LSU. However, if you look at the “Recent” rating in the right-hand column, you will see that LSU’s rating is an insanely high 109.57 with recent games being weighted more heavily. Any rating over 100 is rare to begin with, though becoming a bit more common. 109 is off the charts.

In a great snapshot, the Sagarin ratings show a very clear picture of why LSU won the National Championship this year. Ohio State was the best and most consistent team over the course of the year. LSU was a pretty good team over the course of the year. However, in its last few games, LSU was one of the best teams that college football has ever seen–and that’s why the Tigers are National Champions.

Ohio State keeps rising in advanced metrics, even without Chase Young

The Ohio State Buckeyes improved their overall ratings in multiple advanced metrics, even with Chase Young sitting out.

The Ohio State Buckeyes were without Chase Young this past week, but that didn’t stop them from dominating Maryland. Then again, no one expected the Buckeyes to do anything other than dominate the Terps. Even without Young, Ohio State was still favored by over 40 points–a spread the Buckeyes easily covered.

What is impressive, though, is that Ohio State managed to improve its score in advanced metrics in the process. These metrics, whether they operate on a possession-by-possession or play-by-play basis, expect teams like Ohio State to blow out teams like Maryland. Without a star defensive player, you might expect that Ohio State’s numbers would slip a bit. But that didn’t happen. Not only did the Buckeyes not slip, they rose even further.

In Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, the Buckeyes stayed pretty static on both offense and defense. The defensive rating barely moved, from giving up an expected 9.0 points per game against an average team to giving up 9.1. Ohio State’s overall rating skyrocketed to an unheard-of 36.9, though, on the back of special teams ratings becoming more valuable this week. (There are fewer special teams plays in a game so it takes longer in the season for them to reach their full value.)

In ESPN’s FPI ratings, the Buckeyes rose to an incredible 34.7 points better than an average team. The rating last week was 33.8. Without Chase Young, Ohio State still managed to make its overall score a point better in one week. What could have happened if Young was on the field?

And, lastly, the Buckeyes improved their Sagarin rating as well. The Predictor, Golden Mean, and Recent ratings all rose about one point (Recent was the lowest, at .81) with the domination of Maryland.

Chase Young is an incredible player, and perhaps he might be needed against an elite offensive line in the CFP. But against everyone else, Ohio State’s other linemen are still better than whoever is trying to block them. That means that the Buckeyes can improve their overall efficiencies, even without their top player on the field.