The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers tussle in Tampa, Fla., in Super Bowl 55 and it’s time for a deeper dive into some of the myriad of Super Bowl LV player prop bets on the board. In the following paragraphs, we’ve placed some of Chiefs TE Travis Kelce’s Super Bowl prop bets under the microscope, and have come up with some picks and predictions.

Travis Kelce Super Bowl prop bets

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:25 a.m. ET.

To score a touchdown: -165

Kelce tied Green Bay Packers TE Robert Tonyan for the league tight end lead with 11 scoring receptions in the regular season. He has added 3 more TDs in two playoff games.

In 12 of the Chiefs’ 18 games this season — Kelce sat out Week 17 along with a number of other staters — he found his way into the end zone at least once and has also done so in five of his last six postseason contests.

So, with a player who has scored in 70.6% of his games this season, we’re rolling with the Over on the markedly lower 62.3% implied probability at -165 that Kelce will hit paydirt Sunday.

Also see:

To score Chiefs’ first touchdown: +350

The unanimous 2020 first-team All-Pro selection has accounted for a healthy 16.7% (35) of the Chiefs’ 209 total touchdowns, including the playoffs, since the start of the 2018 season (the Patrick Mahomes starting era).

That TD percentage jumped to 21.9% (14 of 64) thus far this season, and even though we’re still slightly on the wrong side of the value here with the implied probability of the +350 odds sitting at 22.2%, it’s definitely a wager worth making if you’re looking for a decent shot at better than tripling up your investment.

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Receptions made: OVER 7.5 (-135)

Kelce has 8 or more catches in 11 of 17 games this season, including 8 (on 8 targets) for 82 scoreless yards in the Chiefs’ 27-24 Week 12 win over the Buccaneers in Tampa. He had 8 and 13 catches, respectively, in playoff wins over the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills.

The Bucs, meanwhile, allowed the seventh-most regular-season receptions (86) to tight ends and have surrendered 19 more in their three NFC playoff wins.

A solid nod to the Over here.

Longest reception: UNDER 25.5 yards (-110)

Here’s the rare Kelce prop where the Under looks to be the noticeably better value.

The straight -110 odds implies a 52.4% probability the Under will hit, but Kelce hasn’t had a reception longer than 25 yards in 34 of the 54 games he’s played (63%) since the start of 2018, including 10 of 17 (58.8%) contests this season.

And that’s despite Kelce leading the league (not just tight ends) with 4,546 receiving yards during that span, meaning it’s typically more about quantity than quality big gainers when it comes to Kelce’s receptions.

To be named Super Bowl LV MVPL +1000

Here’s our obligatory longer-shot pick that’s worth a shot.

A tight end has never won MVP honors in 54 prior Super Bowls, and if anyone’s going to do it, why not put some money on the game’s current top tight end in his prime — and clearly one of the position’s all-time greats — to be the first?

If so, a handsome 10-1 payout awaits.

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Chiefs Wire

Follow Ken Pomponio on Twitter @kenpomp. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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