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The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet in Super Bowl LIV Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Below, we look at what the first scoring play will be, based on the sports betting odds and lines at BetMGM for Super Bowl LIV.
Here at SportsbookWire, we have you covered for all your prop betting needs for the big game.
First scoring play, 6-way (including overtime)
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 5 p.m. ET.
- 49ers field goal: +375
- 49ers safety: +5000
- 49ers touchdown: +200
- Chiefs field goal: +330
- Chiefs safety: +5500
- Chiefs touchdown: +190
With both teams averaging at least 29.8 points per game, including 6.7 (49ers) and 5.4 (Chiefs) points in the first quarter, predicting the likeliest first score might simply come down to whichever potent offense gets the ball first Sunday in South Beach.
So, on that premise, let us begin by examining each team’s opening offensive possession stats in the 18 contests each has played on the road to Miami (including the postseason):
- The 49ers have scored points on 11 of 18 opening possessions, tallying seven touchdowns and four field goals. One other first drive ended in a turnover: A Jimmy Garoppolo interception in Week 3 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
- The Chiefs have scored on half of their 18 opening offensive drives, notching seven TDs and a pair of field goals. All were in games started by wunderkind QB Patrick Mahomes. Another one of Kansas City’s opening drives ended in a missed 36-yard field-goal attempt and another concluded with a Mahomes interception in Week 14 at the New England Patriots.
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Defensively, including the playoffs, San Francisco is giving up an average of 18.8 points per contest, including an average of 4.1 in the first quarter. Kansas City is allowing 20.2 points, with 6.2 coming in the opening quarter.
Breaking it down even further, here’s how each of the Big Game combatants fared on their opening defensive possessions through 18 games:
- The 49ers have permitted points on only six of their opponents’ first drives (four TDs and two field goals). Two other opposing team opening possessions ended in a fumble and a missed field goal.
- The Chiefs, meanwhile, have surrendered 10 scores (six TDs and four field goals) on opening drives, including one of each in the playoffs. Three other first drives by foes ended in turnovers, with the KC defense recovering two fumbles and picking off a pass.
Our best bet: 49ers TD (+200)
Despite the 49ers’ superior numbers across the board, as just detailed, and Kansas City’s sluggish starts during the postseason, which have resulted in double-digit second-quarter deficits in each game, the Chiefs are slight favorites to put up the first score Sunday.
Wagers on a 49ers TD or field goal as the first score of Super Bowl LIV will return more than their Kansas City counterparts and, again referencing the probabilities based on this season’s early in-game performances, we’ll go with head coach Kyle Shanahan scripting up an early TD drive for the 49ers as the likeliest first score of Super Bowl LIV.
Also see:
- Super Bowl LIV Betting Guide
- Super Bowl LIV: 7 player prop bets to cash in on
- 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl odds: Chiefs slight favorites over 49ers
Want action on this game or prop bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.
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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
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