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The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs meet at Super Bowl LIV on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the betting odds and lines at BetMGM to see which side will be leading after the first half.
Super Bowl LIV first half money line
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:45 p.m. ET.
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People say that championships are decided in the second half but, leaving out the three first-half ties, the team with the lead going into halftime has a 38-12 record in the Super Bowl.
Throughout the season, the Chiefs have been a better first-half team: Kansas City has a +7.9 point differential compared to San Francisco’s +5.4 point differential. The Chiefs have a higher first-half possession share percentage at 49.5% versus 49ers’ 49.1%. Powered by offensive eruptions, the Chiefs have jumped out to a lead in the first half in three of their last four postseason games, scoring 21, 28 and 24 in those games. Also, the Chiefs have led going into halftime in 13 games, while the 49ers have led in 11 games after the first half.
Also see:
- Super Bowl LIV Betting Guide
- Super Bowl LIV: 7 player prop bets to cash in on
- 2020 Super Bowl odds and betting trends
- 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl odds: Chiefs slight favorites over 49ers
However, where I give the 49ers the edge, is their ability to play balanced football and the Chiefs’ struggles against the ground game. Granted they did well against Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry in the AFC title game—giving up just 69 rushing yards on 19 attempts. However, they were 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game, 29th in yards per rush and the 29th-most efficient rush defense plus had the 28th ranked defensive line in adjusted line yards, according to FootballOutsiders.com.
Furthermore, I’m going to take a glass half empty approach to factoring the Chiefs’ postseason first-half leads into this handicap. While they’ve held the lead in three of their past four playoff games, the Chiefs have also fallen behind by double-digits in three of those first halves. Their defense is ranked 28th in first quarter points allowed, and the 49ers are ranked third in first quarter points scored. San Francisco’s second-ranked defense in points allowed in the second quarter (actually tied for second with the Chiefs) should help rein in the Chiefs trademark second quarter onslaught. So basically the 49ers should be able to jump out to an early lead and utilize the run game to hold that lead.
BET 49ERS (-106) ON THE FIRST HALF MONEY LINE.
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