The No. 6 Baylor Bears (11-2) battle the No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels (10-2) Saturday in the Allstate Sugar Bowl at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The kickoff is scheduled for 8:45 p.m. ET and the game airs on ESPN. Below, we look at the Baylor vs. Ole Miss odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Baylor enters on a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS), which includes a 21-16 thrilling victory over the No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Big XII title game Dec. 4.
The Bears are led by LB Jalen Pitre, who won 2021 Big XII Defensive Player of the Year, and the conference’s second-leading rusher in RB Abram Smith. Baylor is 9-4 ATS and 6-7 O/U with the 28th-toughest schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Ole Miss has won seven of the past eight (6-2 ATS) – including four straight – with the latest being a 31-21 victory over the Mississippi State Bulldogs Nov. 25, in the Egg Bowl.
Rebels junior QB Matt Corral surprised Ole Miss fans by opting into the Sugar Bowl despite announcing he’s entering the NFL Draft after the Egg Bowl. Many NFL draft experts expect Corral to be drafted in the first round.
Corral scored 31 TDs (20 passing, 11 rushing) and had the fifth-highest passer efficiency rating in the SEC (157.7). Ole Miss is 7-4-1 ATS and 3-9 O/U with the 29th-toughest schedule (Sagarin).
Baylor vs. Ole Miss odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Baylor +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Ole Miss -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Baylor +1.5 (-112) | Ole Miss -1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 57.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Baylor vs. Ole Miss odds, lines, picks and predictions
Get some action on this matchup at Tipico Sportsbook, a trusted, global sports-betting leader and Sportsbook Wire’s official betting partner.
Place your legal, online sports bets in CO and NJ at Tipico now. IA, Tipico is coming to your state soon! New customer offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $100 in instant bet credits! 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Bet now!
Prediction
Ole Miss 27, Baylor 24
Money line
“LEAN” to OLE MISS (-120) because the tippy-top of the SEC is playing on another level right now. Look what happened in the College Football Playoff semifinals New Year’s Eve with Alabama hammering Cincinnati and Georgia rolling Michigan.
Also, I don’t think Ole Miss and head coach Lane Kiffin will spoil the rare bowl game opt-in from Corral, who’s predicted to be a first-round selection in the upcoming NFL draft. Furthermore, Ole Miss has higher predicted points added and yards per play differentials.
My hesitation with Ole Miss is Baylor has a strength-on-weakness edge in its favor. Baylor is 17th in rushing yards per game, and Ole Miss’s defense ranks 102nd in rushing yards allowed per game.
Against the spread
PASS because I only “lean” to Ole Miss on the money line and am not confident enough in the Rebels to lay the points. More importantly, Ole Miss’ money line is only 12 cents on the dollar more expensive than the spread so it wouldn’t make much sense to lay the points anyhow.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 57.5 (-105) for 1 unit because there has been too much line movement from the opening total (50.5), and the market has misread Rebels totals all year long hence Ole Miss’s 3-9 O/U record.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the cash wagered is on the Over, which has steamed the total up a touchdown. The bottom line is I don’t believe the oddsmakers were 7 points off with the original number.
On top of that, the Under has cashed in Baylor’s past five games vs. teams with a winning record and Ole Miss is 0-7 O/U in its last seven games.
For what it’s worth, the UNDER 57.5 (-105) is my favorite wager in the Baylor-Ole Miss game.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and, soon, IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter and SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]