We all want to know whether or not Aaron Rodgers is going to be back with the Green Bay Packers in 2023. Ideally, the answer comes sooner than later, but in reality, there doesn’t have to be a conclusion until just before free agency begins on March 15th.
Rodgers concluded his darkness retreat last week, and if you were expecting an immediate answer, well, you’re still waiting in the dark. In fact, Brian Gutekunst told reporters on Tuesday at the NFL Combine that he and Rodgers haven’t had any conversations about his future since the season ended – only a few text messages have been exchanged.
As Matt Schneidman of The Athletic pointed out, it wasn’t until March 8th last offseason that Rodgers decided he was returning to the Packers. This can give us a ballpark idea of when a decision could be made, but again the real deadline is likely just a few days before March 15th.
By having a decision made prior to that date — one way or the other — it will give the Packers the opportunity to know what their salary cap situation is going to look like so they can begin making additions in free agency when the time comes. Whether Rodgers returns or is traded, there will be salary cap ramifications for the Packers that they’ll have to navigate, including either a massive dead cap hit if he moves on or a contract restructure, as Gutekunst alluded to, to free up additional cap space if he returns. Green Bay will also need time to find a trade partner if that’s the path they go down, and the acquiring team will have to get their own salary cap situation in order before free agency.
With that said, of course, the more time the Packers have to do all of this, the better, but whether Rodgers makes a decision on March 1st or March 9th, that element — although a big one — really has little impact on how Green Bay goes about their offseason. Rodgers has said for the second offseason in a row that he doesn’t want to hold the Packers hostage. And while it’s been nearly two months since the season ended, this really doesn’t become an issue until free agency begins in a few weeks.
Not to be forgotten in all of this is the impact Rodgers’ decision has on Jordan Love’s future. One major difference in this offseason compared to last is that there seems to be a willingness on Green Bay’s part to move on from Rodgers, which wasn’t the case in 2022. This likely speaks to the improvements that Love has made, something we saw on display against Philadelphia.
During the previous two offseasons, Gutey has been adamant in saying that they wouldn’t be trading Rodgers. His latest comments, however, suggest that all options are on the table. Gutey also continues to talk highly of Love, telling reporters that he believes Love is ready to be a starter.
“I’m excited to see Jordan grow and play, and I certainly expect that to be here,” added Gutekunst.
Following this year’s draft, the Packers have to decide whether or not to pick up Love’s fifth-year option for the 2024 season, which will give him a guaranteed $20-plus million contract at that time. If Rodgers is traded, then this is an easy decision to make–the Packers should pick it up. $20 million, in the grand scheme of the current quarterback market, is a small amount, even if Green Bay ends up looking for a replacement next offseason.
On the flip side, if Rodgers returns, then Green Bay should look to trade Love. If, at this point, they still aren’t comfortable making him ‘the guy,’ then they may never be and should try to get something in return for him. With that said, given Love’s relatively low cap hit in 2023, a potentially limited trade market, and the little leverage that he has, if the Packers want to keep him along with Rodgers for another year, they have the ability to do so.
Although Gutekunst fielded a number of questions about Rodgers, we learned nothing new. The Packers are still in limbo as they await a decision, and while we all want a resolution, there is still time. As I said a few weeks ago, this feels like a situation where both the Packers and Rodgers are ready to move on, but neither wants to be the one to say so publicly, effectively ending the relationship.