The St. Louis Cardinals (50-65) and Tampa Bay Rays (69-47) close out a 3-game set at Tropicana Field Thursday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 1-1
The Cardinals evened the series with a 6-4 win Wednesday. They actually could easily have won both games, but they allowed 4 runs across the 7th and 8th innings Tuesday to fall 4-2. St. Louis is 4-6 and 8-12 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively. It remains 11 1/2 games out in the NL Central and 9 1/2 out of an NL Wild Card berth.
The Rays are scuffling a bit as they’re 9-11 over the last 20 and 12-18 over the last 30. They sit 2 games out in the AL East but own the top AL Wild Card spot. Tampa Bay is a great home team at 38-20 and has excelled against left-handed pitching at 14-6.
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Cardinals at Rays projected starters
LHP Matthew Liberatore vs. RHP Zack Littell
Liberatore (1-4, 6.93 ERA) makes his 10th start and 11th appearance. He has a 1.78 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 37 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 1 K last Thursday against Minnesota Twins
- Home/road splits: 0-2, 11.48 ERA, 2.10 WHIP, 4.1 K/9 in 4 road starts; 1-2, 4.44 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 5 starts and 1 relief appearance on the road
Littell (2-2, 4.04 ERA) makes his 6th start and 19th appearance. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 35 2/3 innings for the Rays and Boston Red Sox.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 K Friday against the Detroit Tigers
- In his 5 starts: 2-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 18 1/3 IP
Cardinals at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Rays -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-125) | Rays -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Cardinals at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 6, Cardinals 4
Moneyline
Liberatore returns to face the team that drafted him, and he has not returned pretty results. He has allowed 2 ER or fewer in just 2 of 7 starts. The Rays’ pen is a little tired after a bullpen game Wednesday, but they should still have enough to get it done.
PASS on the -185, and head to the Win/Total section and take RAYS AND OVER 5.5 (-110).
Run line/Against the spread
Each game in this series, and 9 of the last 10 between these teams, has been decided by more than a single run. I’d like a little more than +105 because Littell doesn’t have sustained performance on the mound, but I’m willing to take it based on the Rays’ pen being so much better than St. Louis’. Tampa has a 3.91 bullpen ERA, and the Cardinals’ is 4.42.
Take the RAYS -1.5 (+105).
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Over/Under
This one is a little tricky because the Cards will probably be down early and will have to fight back in order to cash an Over. They are 3-7 O/U over the last 10, and Tampa is 5-5. Wednesday’s game went Over, and the Over is 5-5 in the last 10 between the teams.
I’ll LEAN OVER 9.5 (+100).
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