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The St. Louis Cardinals (28-29) take on the Houston Astros (26-34) Monday in the opener of a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Astros won 2-1 last year
The Cards come to town to renew their former NL Central rivalry with the Astros on a 3-3 road trip thus far. They dropped 2 of 3 in Philadelphia, but they beat the Phillies 5-4 in 10 innings Sunday night as +126 underdogs. St. Louis 2B Nolan Gorman went 2-for-4 with his 11th homer and 3 RBIs in the win. The streaky sophomore now has 3 HRs in his last 5 games.
The Astros lost 2 of 3 at home to the Minnesota Twins over the weekend. Sunday’s affair was a 4-3 setback as they continue to struggle offensively. They’re 14th in the league with 4.33 runs per game, per Teamrankings.com. They’ve plated 4+ runs just 3 times in 9 games. 3B Alex Bregman finally appears to be heating up with a 6-game hitting streak, including 4 multi-hit outings, and 3 HRs in the last 4 games.
Cardinals at Astros projected starters
RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Gibson (4-2, 3.60 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 65 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-1 victory at Cincinnati Reds Tuesday
- Last 5 starts vs. Astros: 0-1, 2.73 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 29 K
Verlander (3-2, 3.26 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 47 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 2-1, 10-inning loss at Seattle Mariners Wednesday
- 2024 home/road splits: Home: 0-1, 4.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 3.9 K/9; Away: 3-1, 2.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.9 K/9
- Hasn’t faced St. Louis in regular season since 2012
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Cardinals at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Astros -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-135) | Astros -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Cardinals at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Cardinals 4
Moneyline
The Cardinals averaged 4 runs per game over their last 10, and there hasn’t been a lot of discrepancies. They’re either scoring 5 or 6 and winning or scoring 1 or 2 and losing. Houston has the edge on the mound, and their bullpen is a shade better with a 3.66 ERA, compared to STL’s 3.80. The Cards are also dealing with a slew of injuries to their offense.
I still don’t think this should be a -185 slant toward the Astros. Gibson has allowed 1 ER in his last 2 starts combined, and he has a 3.04 ERA in his last 4 starts at Minute Maid.
I like the Astros here, but not at this price. Instead, I’m taking ALEX BREGMAN OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (+115). He has 2+ TB in 4 straight and 5 of 6. He also is hitting .304 with 2 HRs and 2 doubles in 28 career at-bats vs. Gibson.
Run line/Against the spread
It’s rare that a +1.5 run line sticks out to me, but the Cardinals’ side is pretty good here. As mentioned, they have a solid ‘pen and have been better offensively of late. They have a solid chance to pull out the win as well.
So, I’ll take CARDINALS +1.5 (-135).
Over/Under
The Cards are 2-7-1 O/U in their last 10, and the Astros are 1-9. I have faith in the starting pitchers to keep each side in the game as well. What decides this for me, though: It’s slated to be 84 degrees with a 14-mph wind blowing out to left-center. Guys will be teeing off for the Crawford Boxes, and this one sneaks OVER 8 (-105).
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