The St. Louis Cardinals (74-54) battle the Cincinnati Reds (50-76) Monday in the 1st game of a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Cardinals lead 7-4
The Cardinals pulled one out late Sunday night with a 3-run home run by OF Tyler O’Neill to give them a 6-3 win and a series win over the Atlanta Braves. The Cards have remained hot, going 7-3, 14-6 and 23-7 over their last 10, 20 and 30 games, respectively. However, they’ve had trouble with Cincinnati and are just 3-3 at GABP this season — and the Reds were 10-9 against the Cards last season.
The Reds come into this one 4-6 over their last 10 contests, and those 4 wins came against the last-place Washington Nationals and the Pittsburgh Pirates. They’re just 7-13 over the last 20 games. They are slightly better at home with a 26-36 mark. It’ll be a challenge Monday as the team signed its starter — RHP Chase Anderson — just a few days ago.
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Cardinals at Reds projected starters
RHP Miles Mikolas vs. RHP Chase Anderson
Mikolas (10-10, 3.35 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 164 IP.
- Was touched for 6 ER on 7 H and 2 BB with 4 K in 5 IP at GABP July 24.
- Has a 5.40 ERA over 5 August starts; fatigue might be setting in after throwing just 44 2/3 big league innings the last 2 years combined.
Anderson (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his first appearance in the majors this season.
- Was 2-4 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 9 starts and 5 bullpen appearances with the Philadelphia Phillies last year.
- Spent the last month as a reliever in Triple-A and threw a combined 10 pitches in his last 2 appearances, so he’s not built up to pitch deep into a game.
Cardinals at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:39 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cardinals -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Reds +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (-135) | Reds +1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Cardinals at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 6, Reds 3
Money line
The Cards are heavy favorites, as they should be, but the Reds have given them fits. Mikolas is showing signs of fatigue and has a 6.58 ERA in 5 career starts in Cincinnati.
The Cards are going to score runs, though. They’ve plated 5 in 3 of the 6 games at GABP. It’s chalky but seems pretty probable to cash if you take CARDINALS OVER 4.5 TOTAL RUNS (-175).
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Run line/Against the spread
The Reds are 26-36 straight up and 28-34 on the RL at home. That doesn’t give me much confidence that they can stay within a couple of runs. On the flip side, I’m not paying -135 for the Cards to win by 2 with a pitcher that is fading and has a bad history at this park. PASS on the RL.
However, I would take a chance on MIKOLAS UNDER 4.5 K’S (-114). It’s dicey because he’s capable of fanning 5 in every start. However, he has only done it 2 times in the last 7 outings and he hasn’t struck out 5 Reds over a span of 4 starts dating to 2019.
Over/Under
The wind is blowing toward the left-field foul pole at 11 mph, which shouldn’t affect much positively. Scoring 10 runs is definitely possible with a pitcher who struggles and a possible bullpen game for Cincinnati.
However, it has only happened once in 6 games at GABP between the teams this year. LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-122) or hope for a scoreless 1st inning for a better live bet.
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