The St. Louis Cardinals (50-45) square off against the Cincinnati Reds (35-57) Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: The Cardinals lead 6-3.
All of our picks hit in Friday’s series opener despite the incorrectly predicted score. The Reds took out the Cards 9-5 after getting to RHP Adam Wainwright for 7 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings as his struggles at Great American Ball Park continue. The Cards will turn to LHP Steven Matz Saturday, who will be making his first start since May 17.
The Reds are 7-3 over their last 10 games as they have some young pitching budding before our eyes. RHP Graham Ashcraft did allow 4 ER in 4 2/3 IP in the opener, but he tied a career-high with 8 K. Cincinnati is 9-17 against left-handed starters and will be an underdog again Saturday.
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Cardinals at Reds projected starters
LHP Steven Matz vs. LHP Mike Minor
Matz (3-3, 6.03 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 37 1/3 IP.
- Making his first start since May 17 due to a shoulder issue.
- His numbers are a little deceiving as his walk rate is decent, and his K-rate is great, but he allowed 15 ER across 5 IP over 2 bad starts; his ERA is 2.78 outside of those outings.
- Held the Reds to 1 ER on 7 H and 2 BB with 6 K across 5 IP April 22.
- Current Reds are hitting .415 in 44 plate appearances against Matz.
Minor (1-6, 6.21 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 42 IP.
- Allowed 7 ER on 13 H, 3 BB with 14 K’s in 11 IP in 2 starts — both losses — against St. Louis this year.
- Might need a defibrillator if home is where the heart is as he’s put up a 6.08 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP at Great American Ball Park.
- Current Cardinals are hitting .317 with a .404 weighted on-base average in 70 plate appearances against Minor.
Cardinals at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:09 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cardinals -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Reds +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (-105) | Reds +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Cardinals at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 6, Reds 5
Money line
The Cards are actually hitting better against left-handed pitching this year, which is something they don’t normally do. St. Louis is slashing .264/.337/.426 vs. LHP and .248/.316/.397 against RHP.
It’s not a very large sample size, but Matz is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 14 K in 10 2/3 IP at GABP lifetime. I expect him to go 5 IP and give up 3 ER, and the Cards’ shaky pen figures it out from there. I’m not paying -165, though. LEAN CARDINALS FIRST 5 INNINGS SPREAD -0.5 (-112).
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Run line/Against the spread
The Reds are now 43-49 on the RL, which is pretty good for a 35-win team. The problem is Minor could allow this one to get out of reach, and while the Cards’ middle relief is bad, I don’t feel too comfortable going on the Reds’ RL again.
Let’s go in a different direction. Matz gives up hits in bunches. He has allowed 35 across 34 1/3 innings this year and 17 hits in 10 1/3 IP at GABP in his career. OVER 4.5 REDS TOTAL HITS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-133) looks good to me.
Over/Under
We feasted on the Over for 2 units Friday, but the book is setting a trap for the middle game of the series. They’re thinking “we’ve got 2 starters with bad ERA and 14 runs scored yesterday, let’s lay 10.5 out there and see who bites!”
The problem is that the wind is blowing in from right-center field at 12 mph. Don’t risk it unless this number comes back to 10 or 9.5 by first pitch to give a push cushion. PASS.
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