The St. Louis Cardinals (50-44) start the 2nd half of their season against the Cincinnati Reds (34-57) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: The Cardinals lead 6-2.
These teams got an extra day of vacation prior to the All-Star break when their Sunday matchup was nixed due to rain. The Cards finished the 1st half 9-11 over their last 20 games.
The Cardinals have pitching issues that have them shopping for starters as the trade deadline nears. The starting rotation has a 3.93 ERA, which is 15th in baseball, but it soars to 4.78 on the road.
The Reds were decent entering the break at 10-10 over their last 20 contests. They have a trio of players in RHP Luis Castillo, RHP Tyler Mahle and 3B Brandon Drury that could be moved at the deadline and are motivated to perform. Don’t take the Reds lightly in this series because of their record.
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Cardinals at Reds projected starters
RHP Adam Wainwright vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft
Wainwright (6-7, 3.00 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 across 111 IP.
- Has trouble in Cincinnati with a 5.43 ERA through 109 1/3 IP at Great American Ball Park in his career.
- Allowed 4 ER on 8 H and 3 BB with 3 K over 5 IP at Cincinnati April 24.
- Numbers inflate on the road in 2022: 4.10 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 6.5 K/9 on road vs. 2.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 at home.
Ashcraft (4-2, 4.45 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 through 54 2/3 IP.
- Allowed 4 ER on 9 H with 2 K over 4 2/3 IP against St. Louis June 12.
- Has allowed at least 2 ER in 6 straight starts.
- Better at home at 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.12 WHIP vs. 1-1 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.64 WHIP on the road.
Cardinals at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cardinals -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+102) | Reds +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Cardinals at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 6, Reds 5
Money line
For as bad as Wainwright has been in GABP, he still holds a career 7-7 record. That said, I think the Cards find a way to win, but I’m not confident enough to put -155 on it. PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread
The Reds are 42-49 on the RL, which is pretty good for a 34-win team. They are 13-11 in 1-run games, which is marginally better than the Cards at 13-12. The Reds could steal this game, but one thing is for certain – runs will be scored, and the Cardinals aren’t great in close games.
Give me the REDS +1.5 (-125).
Over/Under
The Over is the best bet in this game. With Wainwright’s documented struggles in Cincinnati and Ashcraft not missing many bats, 10 runs doesn’t seem like too tall of a task.
The wind is blowing out to left field at 9 mph. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these sides, and it’s 4-0 in the Reds’ last 4 games overall and against teams with a winning record.
I’d hit OVER 9.5 (-115) for TWO UNITS.
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