The St. Louis Cardinals (49-50) play the Cincinnati Reds (51-47) Sunday in their three-game series finale at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincy is looking for the series sweep after beating St. Louis in the first two games by a combined score of 11-8.
Season series: Reds lead 8-4.
RHP Johan Oviedo takes the mound for the Cardinals. Oviedo is 0-5 with a 4.81 ERA (58 IP, 31 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 over 12 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K in a 7-6 loss to the Chicago Cubs Tuesday.
- 2021 road splits: 0-3 with a 5.92 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.97 WHIP and 0.7 K/BB rate in six starts.
RHP Sonny Gray makes his 14th start for the Reds. Gray is 2-5 with a 3.65 ERA (66 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 8-0, with 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 6 K vs. the Milwaukee Brewers July 18.
- Gray took a loss earlier this season against St. Louis (April 23) with 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Cincy’s 5-4 defeat.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 3.01 FIP with a .219 batting average, .286 wOBA, .505 expected slugging percentage, 27.0 K% and 88.5 mph exit velocity in 74 plate appearances.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Cardinals at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:41 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Reds -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-125) | Reds -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Reds 9, Cardinals 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the REDS (-185) because there has been “sharp” line movement towards Cincy as BetMGM opened this game up with the Reds favored -175 before they were steamed up to the current price.
The Reds have won four straight against the Cardinals at home this season by a combined score of 32-15 and Oviedo has pitched poorly on the road this year.
However, I’d risk just 1 unit on Cincy’s money line. If your standard wager is $100, BET $100 on REDS (-185) to hopefully earn a profit of $54.05.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
I prefer TAKING the REDS -1.5 (+105) more than their money line because of the plus-money payout and the Reds have won by two or more runs in four of their current six-game winning streak vs. the Cardinals.
The odds are in our favor in this spot because Cincy has a 53.5% cover rate vs. divisional foes this season (23-20 ATS), St. Louis’ cover rate is 43.6% against NL Central competition (17-22 ATS) and the implied win probability of Cincy’s run line price is 48.8%.
Essentially, we need to win the REDS -1.5 (+105) wager just half the time to net a profit and Cincy is covering against NL Central teams more than half the time.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-115) for a half unit because both starters are middle to bottom of the rotation guys and neither bullpen grades well in advanced pitching metrics.
In addition, the Over is 4-0-1 in the last five Cardinals-Reds meetings in Cincy and Gray has given up 11 earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work over his past two starts vs. St. Louis (one earlier this season and the other in 2020).
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]