The St. Louis Cardinals (43-46) meet their NL Central rival the Chicago Cubs (44-45) Saturday for the second game of their three-game series at Wrigley Field. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago clubbed St. Louis in the first game of the series 10-5 Friday as the Cubs raked Cardinals’ starter, Wade LeBlanc, early with 3 runs in the first inning and did more damage to their bullpen with 5 runs in the seventh.
Season series: Cubs lead 6-1.
LHP Kwang Hyun Kim makes his 15th start for the Cardinals. Kim is 3-5 with a 3.39 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 5-3, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 2 K Monday at the San Francisco Giants.
- 2021 road splits: 1-4 with a 3.51 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.32 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB rate across seven starts.
RHP Zach Davies is Chicago’s projected starter. Davies is 5-5 with a 4.28 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 over 18 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 1 K in Chicago’s 13-3 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies Monday.
- Davies is 1-0 this season against the Cardinals with a 0.00 ERA, 11 2/3 IP, 6 H, 5 BB and 9 K over two starts.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 134 at-bats with a .321/.401/.530 slash line, 22/17 K/BB, 5 HR and 12 RBIs.
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Cardinals at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:53 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Cubs -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-200) | Cubs -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Cubs 5, Cardinals 3
Money line (ML)
BET the CUBS (-120) for 1 unit since they hit much better against lefties than righties, Davies has been lights out vs. the Cardinals this year and Chicago has a huge edge in bullpen pitching.
For instance, the Cubs moved to 14-11 against lefties after beating starting LHP LeBlanc Friday and their lineup ranks 10th or better in wRC+, wOBA, OPS and hard-hit rate vs. left-handed pitching.
Furthermore, the Cardinals batters rank in the bottom-5 of the majors vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA, OPS and hard-hit rate.
Lastly, St. Louis’s bullpen has massive control issues and ranks dead last in K-BB%, SIERA and xFIP this season.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS -1.5 (+165) for a quarter unit for all the aforementioned reasons plus Chicago has a winning run line record at home (24-20 ATS) and five of Chicago’s six wins over St. Louis this season have been by at least two runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” toward the Over because Davies’ pitching peripherals and St. Louis’s lineup’s slash line against him tell a different story than his basic pitching stats while the Cardinals are 8-3-2 O/U when Kim starts.
Also, the weather forecast is predicting 12.5 mph winds blowing in from left-centerfield and the Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 Cardinals-Cubs meetings.
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