The St. Louis Cardinals (44-40) wrap up their 4-game series with the Atlanta Braves (49-34) Thursday at Truist Park with the 1st pitch set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta is going for the sweep after winning the first 3 games of this series by a combined score of 16-4. This is the 1st series between the team with the 2nd series in late August in St. Louis.
The Braves are 7-3 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games and sit 2.5 games behind the New York Mets for 1st in the NL East.
The Cardinals are 3-7 SU in the last 10 and are 3 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead.
Cardinals at Braves projected starters
LHP Matthew Liberatore vs. RHP Spencer Strider
Liberatore is 2-1 in 5 starts with a 5.66 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 4.8 B/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 20 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision in Saturday’s 7-6 win at the Philadelphia Phillies with 2 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
- 2022 road splits: 0-1 with a 10.97 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 20 H, 4 HR, 6 BB and 7 K in 3 starts.
Strider is 4-2 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9 in 59 2/3 IP over 7 starts and 11 relief appearances.
- Last start: Won 4-1 Saturday at the Cincinnati Reds with 6 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 10 K.
- 2022 starter splits: 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 3 HR and 13.5 K/9 in 7 starts.
Cardinals at Braves odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:21 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cardinals +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Braves -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (+100) | Braves -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Cardinals at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 7, Cardinals 3
Money line
PASS.
There are a lot of pro-Atlanta ML arguments to be made here including its 3-phase edge over the Cardinals (+205) in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
But, we are getting to the party late on the Braves (-260) since they opened as -185 ML favorites and have been steamed all the way up to the current number, per Pregame.com.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET BRAVES -1.5 (-120) for 1 unit because Atlanta’s lineup nukes left-handed pitching and Strider is the frontrunner for rookie of the year and has nasty stuff.
The Braves rank 5th in wRC+ (118), 3rd in wOBA (.343), 2nd in ISO (.204) and 1st in hard-hit rate (35.2%) vs. left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.
Strider is 2nd in xFIP (2.40) and 5th in swinging-strike rate (15.8%) for all starters with at least 30 innings pitched, according to FanGraphs.
Also, Strider is in the 98th percentile in fastball velocity, 99th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in expected ERA, per Statcast.
BET BRAVES -1.5 (-120) to complete the 4-game sweep of the Cardinals +1.5 (+100).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9.5 (+105) since the Braves are 21-16-2 O/U as home favorites, 11-6 O/U at home vs. left-handed starters and Truist Park is 6th in park factor aka extremely hitter-friendly.
That said, I feel stronger about Atlanta’s RL and there are several Under-friendly situational trends in Cardinals-Braves.
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