The Atlanta Braves (46-34) host the St. Louis Cardinals (44-37) Monday for the start of their 4-game series at Truist Park with the 1st pitch scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis is just 4-6 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games and dropped 2 of a 3-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies last weekend.
Atlanta is 6-4 SU in the last 10 with 2 consecutive 2-1 series road victories at the Phillies last week and at the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend.
The Braves beat the Cardinals 6-1 SU in last year’s season series and had a plus-17 run differential in those meetings, but St. Louis is 3-0 vs. Atlanta this season with plus-7 run differential in the 3 games.
Cardinals at Braves projected starters
RHP Dakota Hudson vs. RHP Kyle Wright
Hudson is 6-4 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 5.0 K/9 in 80 IP over 15 starts.
- Last start: Won 5-3 Tuesday at home vs. the Miami Marlins with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
- 5-day rest splits: 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 0 HR and 5.7 K/9 in 4 starts.
Wright is 9-4 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 92 IP over 15 starts.
- Last start: Won 4-1 Wednesday at the Phillies with 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
- 4-day rest splits: 2-2 with a 4.02 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 4 HR and 8.0 K/9 in 5 starts.
Cardinals at Braves odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Cardinals at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Cardinals 3
Money line
RISK 1 unit on the BRAVES (-180) instead of betting to win 1 unit because we are getting the worst of the number. But, Atlanta has a 3-phase edge over the Cardinals (+145) in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Wright grades in the 64th percentile or better in expected ERA, whiff rate, K% and expected slugging percentage (per Statcast) while Hudson grades in the 19th percentile or worse in all those metrics.
Atlanta’s bullpen is a lot more reliable than St. Louis’s. The Braves relievers are 3rd in xFIP (3.60) with much better swing-and-miss and contact rates than the Cardinals’ bullpen whose 22nd in xFIP (4.09), per FanGraphs.
Also, Atlanta’s lineup outperforms St. Louis’s vs. right-handed pitching in wOBA (.320-.314), ISO (.189-.151) and hard-hit rate (36.6-27.6%), according to FanGraphs.
Finally, the Cardinals are just 2-8 SU as road underdogs of +125 or greater with a minus-53.5% return on investment (ROI). The Braves are 6-2 SU as home favorites with Wright as the starters with a plus-23.3% ROI.
If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the BRAVES (-180) to earn a $55.56 profit instead of betting $180 to win $100.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
We are getting late to the party here since Atlanta’s RL opened at +120 (according to Pregame.com) and the Braves are just 3-5 RL with a minus-22.1% ROI as home favorites with Wright on the bump.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-112) because both lineups are less productive vs. right-handed pitching, the Braves are 4-11 O/U in Wright’s 15 starts and the Cardinals are 4-6 O/U as road underdogs of +125 or greater. However, Atlanta’s ML is my favorite look in Cardinals-Braves.
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