The Atlanta Braves (32-35) host the St. Louis Cardinals (35-35) for Game 2 of their Sunday seven-inning doubleheader. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta has dominated the first two games of the series, winning both by a combined score of 13-1 while striking out 15 Cardinals hitters and walking just three.
Season series: Braves lead 2-0.
LHP Kwang Hyun Kim takes the mound for the Cardinals. Kim is 1-4 with a 3.72 ERA (46 IP, 19 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 over 10 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 5 BB and 6 K in St. Louis’ 2-1 victory over the Miami Marlins Tuesday.
- No career appearances vs. the Braves.
LHP Drew Smyly makes his 12th start for the Braves. Smyly is 3-3 with a 5.63 ERA (56 IP, 35 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 6-4, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 6 K Sunday at the Marlins.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 9 at-bats with a .333/.500/.556 slash line, 1/3 K/BB, 0 HR and 2 RBIs.
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Cardinals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:39 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+165) | Braves +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Cardinals 6, Braves 4
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the CARDINALS (+100) for a quarter unit only, because the Over 7.5 (-110) is my favorite play in this game
But, St. Louis’s lineup has been better vs. left-handed pitching and Kim’s advanced pitching numbers are less terrible than Smyly’s.
The Cardinals are 10-5 this season when facing lefty starters and their lineup has the ninth-most wRC+ against left-handed pitching and the fourth-highest BB/K rate.
Also, Atlanta is only 7-9 vs. lefty starters and 4-7 in Smyly’s 13 starts this season.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS. St. Louis’s bullpen is too untrustworthy to bet the Cardinals -1.5 (+165) since the relievers are dead-last in advanced pitching categories such as SIERA, xFIP and K-BB%.
Granted, it’s only a seven-inning game but that still leaves enough time for this St. Louis bullpen to blow whatever lead Kim gives it.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the OVER 7.5 (-110) for 1 unit because these teams have a combined 15-4 O/U this season when these starters take the mound, the Braves are 23-13-2 O/U in Atlanta and the Cardinals are 20-14-2 O/U away from St. Louis.
Furthermore, both starters grade in the 33rd percentile or worse in expected opponent’s wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K% and whiff rate so each lineup could do some damage Sunday.
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