The St. Louis Cardinals (35-35) visit Truist Park Saturday for the third game of their four-game series with the Atlanta Braves (32-35). First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta has owned St. Louis through the first two games of the series, winning both by a combined score of 13-1 with nine extra-base hits.
Season series: Braves lead 2-0.
RHP Adam Wainwright is on the mound for the Cardinals. Wainwright is 4-5 with a 3.95 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 over 13 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 6 K in St. Louis’s 4-2 victory over the Miami Marlins Monday.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 126 at-bats with a .286/.366/.373 slash line, 30/16 K/BB, 0 HR and 9 RBIs.
LHP Drew Smyly makes his 12th start for the Braves. Smyly is 3-3 with a 5.63 ERA (56 IP, 35 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 6-4, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 6 K Sunday at the Marlins.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 7 at-bats with a .286/.444/.429 slash line, 1/2 K/BB, 0 HR and 2 RBIs.
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Cardinals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:49 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-185) | Braves -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Cardinals 6, Braves 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the CARDINALS (-105) because Smyly’s advanced pitching numbers are even uglier than his basic stat line and St. Louis’s lineup hits lefties as well as Atlanta’s hits righties.
For instance, Smyly grades in the 23rd percentile or worse in K%, whiff rate, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected opponent’s wOBA and expected slugging percentage this season.
Additionally, the Cardinals are eighth in wRC+, 11th in wOBA, and fourth in BB/K rate vs. left-handed pitching, and a 10-5 record against lefty starters.
Furthermore, Wainwright is a cagey vet who’s faired well historically against reigning Braves MVP Freddie Freeman and hasn’t allowed a hit against superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. in his seven career plate appearances.
Also, there’s some heavy reverse line movement as Atlanta opened as a -130 money line favorite and has been moved down to the current number despite getting only a slight majority of the action thus far.
It’s only a “LEAN” to the CARDINALS (-105) for a half unit because the Braves have been raking in their last four home games and they should start piling wins as we get into the dog days of the summer.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the CARDINALS +0.5 (-130) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit since we are getting a fair price on a half-run worth of insurance in a starting pitching matchup that favors St. Louis.
Plus we can hopefully avoid having to sweat the Cardinals relievers holding a lead since the St. Louis bullpen is dead-last in K-BB%, xFIP and SIERA.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS. I’m more confident in St. Louis’s lineup in this spot rather than Wainwright on the mound and I could see the Cardinals having to win a slugfest.
Also, with St. Louis’s weak bullpen, the Over could “sneak in the backdoor” if the Cardinals rake Smyly and use their less effective relievers in a 7-0 (or so) game.
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