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The San Antonio Spurs added a generational talent this summer in the form of Victor Wembanyama. And as the 19-year-old Frenchman is expected to be a star, many assume that the Spurs could take a massive leap next season. While that is very possible, it shouldn’t be the expectation, as San Antonio is still super young.
Jesse Pittsley of Pounding the Rock recently wrote an article titled, “It may not seem like it, but the Spurs are still tanking,” where he looked at the data of some teams that were recently tanking and, at the end, attempted to decipher which category the Spurs will fall into next year.
Pittsley concluded that San Antonio will fall in between two categories of rankings – Traditional and Crash.
“Something extraordinary about Portland finishing with the 5th worst record is that the Trailblazers won 33 games! Thirty-three wins is the most by a team that picked 3rd in 30 years (The Warriors, 34 wins, traded Penny Hardaway for Chris Webber in 1993),” Pittsley wrote. “Teams winning 33 games often pick 8th or 9th, and teams in that range are usually not considered “Tanking” organizations. Teams winning over 30 games and getting the 5th best lottery odds is what the NBA wants. Furthermore, this might be what the Spurs should do—strive to win for most of the season and then assess with six weeks remaining.
“Over the next several seasons, we may see more data supporting this thesis that the play-in tournament works. Specifically, it will foster competitiveness and pull teams ranked 18-25th upward for most of the season. Then, if the landscape looks unfruitful, several of these teams will “crash” after the trade deadline to maximize lottery odds. I put the Spurs right at the threshold of the Traditional and Crash tank this season. If a player shows exceptional development, then the play in tournament would be a wonderful learning experience. If not, a very strong draft pick would be excellent as well.”
The traditional tank is exactly what it sounds like – a normal tank where the team isn’t good and is trying to earn a high draft pick. Meanwhile, a crash tank is defined as when the squad begins the year with hopes of making the postseason but bottoms out when those dreams fail to come to fruition midway through the year.
For more in-depth details about this thought process, make sure to check out Pittsley’s full piece.
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