Spain battles Italy in the UEFA Nations League semifinal Thursday. Kickoff from De Grolsch Veste in Enschede, Netherlands, is set for 2:45 p.m. ET. Below, we preview BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Spain vs. Italy odds, and make our best soccer bets, picks and predictions.
The winner of this battle will face Croatia, which beat the Netherlands 4-2 Wednesday in the other semifinal, on Sunday at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Spain beat Portugal 1-0 to make the Nations League final 4. It went 2-0-2 (2 draws) in the group stage matches. Between these 2 sets of matches was the World Cup, in which it was bounced by Morocco in penalty kicks. Spain will likely be led by F Alvaro Morata with Barcelona star M Gavi also in the mix.
Italy failed to qualify for the World Cup, but made these semifinals on the back of a 2-0 win over Hungary. It also took down England 1-0. Italy was 1-1-2 in the group stage matches for the Nations League. It will likely be led in the attack by Tigre F Mateo Retegui. M Marco Verratti and M Jorginho will make up the crux of the Italian roster.
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Spain vs. Italy odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Spain +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Italy +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Draw +230
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +125 | U: -175)
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Spain vs. Italy picks and predictions
Prediction
Spain 2, Italy 1
Moneyline (ML)
BET SPAIN (+125).
Of course, the favorite is the easy route to take here, but the talent is just unmatched. The combination of Gavi and M Rodri along with D Carvajal should present quite a challenge for Italy.
Also, Spain was far better in the group stage and also faired well at the World Cup. The new wave of Italian football hasn’t quite proven itself and took down a Hungary side to reach this point.
With a 5-2 defeat to Germany in the group stage, Italy may struggle against a technically sound Spanish side. Back SPAIN (+125).
Over/Under (O/U)
LEAN OVER 2.5 (+125).
Italy scored in both of its previous matches in the UEFA Champions League and has been held scoreless in just 1 of 6 games. It allowed 7 goals in 4 group stage matches though. Both teams have terrific midfield players which should help transition into opportunities as well.
Spain went Over this total in 2 of 4 World Cup matches and in 1 of 2 of the September Nations League matches. The firepower is there, and for a small unit, play the OVER 2.5 (+125).
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