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The Virginia Cavaliers (5-5, 3-3 ACC) welcome the No. 12 SMU Mustangs (9-1, 6-0) to Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, VA, Saturday. Kickoff is set for noon ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the SMU vs. Virginia odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
SMU is No. 12 in the US LBM Coaches Poll while Virginia comes in unranked. The Mustangs beat the Boston College Eagles 38-28 Saturday in Week 12 action, failing to cover as a 19-point home favorite. They have rattled off 7 straight wins, going 5-2 against the spread (ATS). SMU is led by RB Brashard Smith, who has scored 14 TDs and has rushed for 1,026 yards.
Virginia is coming off a demoralizing 35-14 road loss to the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, failing to cover as a 20.5-point underdog. It is just 1-4 straight up over its last 5 games, but 3-2 ATS in those games and 6-3-1 ATS on the season. They are led by QB Anthony Colandrea, who has 2,017 passing yards and 12 TDs.
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SMU at Virginia odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 1:34 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): SMU -375 (bet $375 to win $100) | Virginia +290 (bet $100 to win $290)
- Against the spread (ATS): SMU -10 (-110) | Virginia +10 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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SMU at Virginia picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 35, Virginia 27
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no reason for a moneyline play here. The Cavaliers have lost 2 straight at home and haven’t shown much resilience. Yet, at the same time, the SMU is too expensive to take to win outright.
Against the spread
BET VIRGINIA +10 (-110).
The Cavaliers have been a covering machine over the last 2 months. They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games and 2-1 ATS in their conference home games. They have scored at least 20 points in 5 of their last 7outings as well.
The Mustangs have been a favorite of 10-20 points 4 times and are 1-3 ATS in those. They have allowed at least 25 points in 3 straight and are coming off a game in which they gave up 28 points to Boston College, a team Virginia beat earlier in the season.
While SMU should win, take VIRGINIA +10 (-110) to cover.
Over/Under
BET OVER 56.5 (-110).
SMU has an electric offense, scoring at least 38 points 3 times in its last 4 games. It it 7-3 O/U and 6-1 O/U in its last 7 games. The Mustangs defense has been porous as well, allowing at least 25 points in 4 of their last 5.
The Cavaliers are 1-3 O/U in their last 4 games, but have given up at least 35 points in 3 of their last 4. They should be able to score on a weak SMU defense while also having allowed far too many points in the last 2 months.
Take OVER 56.5 (-110).
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