The SMU Mustangs (2-2) and the UCF Knights (3-1) meet in the AAC opener for both teams Wednesday at FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the SMU vs. UCF odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
SMU is coming off a 42-34 loss at home against TCU on Sept. 24. The Mustangs have scored 27 or more points in each of its 4 games, although the Under has cashed in 3 of the 4 outings thanks to totals at 66 or more points.
UCF picked up a 27-10 win over Georgia Tech last time out on Sept. 24, and it has scored 27 or more points in 3 of its 4 games overall. The Knights have alternated covers and non-covers in each of its first 4 games to date, while cashing the Under in each of the previous 3 outings.
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SMU at UCF odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 9:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): SMU +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | UCF -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): SMU +3.5 (-125) | UCF -3.5 (+102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 64.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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SMU at UCF picks and predictions
Prediction
UCF 37, SMU 31
Moneyline
UCF (-155) is a moderate favorite, but it is a good play if you’d prefer to have a stress-free night and not worry about the points. This should be a close game, perhaps decided by a last-second field goal, and 3 and a hook is a lot.
The home team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings straight-up in his series, and the Knights won 48-20 in the most recent meeting at the Bounce House in Orlando on Oct. 6, 2018.
Against the spread
UCF -3.5 (+102) is a little more risky laying the points in this potentially high-scoring game, but it’s more palatable since it is plus-money.
While the Knights are just 6-18 ATS across the last 24 conference games, UCF is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 home meetings with SMU. The home team is 8-0-1 ATS in the previous 9 games in the series, while the favorite is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, too.
Over/Under
OVER 64.5 (-110) is a strong play given the offensive production of SMU, and the lack of defense. The Over is 7-0 in the last 7 games for the Mustangs on a grass surface, too, while hitting in each of the last 4 following a bye week. However, the play isn’t without risk, as SMU has cashed the Under in each of the last 4 on the road.
For UCF, the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 at home, but the Over is 5-2 in the last 7 after a bye, and 4-0 in the previous 4 appearances on a Wednesday night. This won’t be a track meet, but it won’t be a defensive battle, either. Look for a total in the high 60’s, approaching 70.
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