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The No. 22 Louisville Cardinals (3-1, 0-0 ACC) welcome the SMU Mustangs (4-1, 1-0) to L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is set for noon ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the SMU vs. Louisville odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Louisville is No. 22 in the US LBM Coaches Poll. The Cardinals beat Austin Peay 62-0 to kick off the season and won each of their first 3 games by 12 or more points. Louisville lost its lone competitive game of the season 31-24 to the No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 5, closing as a 6.5-point underdog.
SMU beat the Florida State Seminoles 41-26 in Week 5, covering as a 6-point home favorite. The Mustangs have rallied off 2 straight wins, scoring a total of 108 points in the victories. Their lone loss of the season was an 18-15 home defeat to No. 19 BYU, failing to cover as a 12.5-point favorite. SMU is 3-2 ATS on the season and 1-0 ATS in conference play.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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SMU at Louisville odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 4:29 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): SMU +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Louisville -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): SMU +6.5 (-105) | Louisville -6.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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SMU at Louisville picks and predictions
Prediction
Louisville 31, SMU 27
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no good value on the moneyline. While the Cardinals (-250) should come out on top, they’re too expensive to play straight up. Avoid a moneyline play, and look to the spread for value.
Against the spread
BET SMU +6.5 (-105).
The Cardinals don’t have a player that, through 4 games, has more than 300 rushing yards. They prefer to attack opponents through the air, and SMU allows the 11th-lowest opponents’ completion rate at 53.3%. The Cardinals may struggle to consistently move the ball that way.
Louisville is also coming off a loss in its first game with a spread of 7 or fewer points. The Mustangs have exceeded betting expectations as of late, winning in Week 5 by 26 and Week 4 by 24, closing as 6-point favorites and 1.5-point underdogs, respectively.
Expect that trend to continue, and back SMU +6.5 (-105).
Over/Under
BET OVER 56.5 (-110).
Both teams like to move the ball and score points. SMU has scored at least 42 points in 3 games and has tallied at least 29 in 4 of 5. The Mustangs are 3-2 O/U and 2-0 O/U in their last 2. The Cardinals have scored at least 31 points in 3 of 4 games and gone Over in 3 of 4 as well.
Louisville allowed 31 points to Notre Dame and 19 the week before to Georgia Tech. It has a competent defense, but that side of the ball has been the bigger weakness for it recently. Couple it all, and take OVER 56.5 (-110).
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