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The SMU Mustangs (6-1, 3-0 ACC) meet the Duke Blue Devils (6-1, 2-1) in a Saturday night ACC battle in Durham. The contest at Wallace Wade Stadium will kick off at 8 p.m. ET (ACC Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around SMU vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Southern Methodist is No. 22 in the US LBM Coaches Poll. The Mustangs roll into Durham on a 4-game win streak and have scored 45.5 points per game (PPG) over that stretch. SMU is playing its 3rd straight game on the road.
Duke has ridden close-game results to its fine midseason mark. The Blue Devils — whose 17.3 PPG allowed is the best average in the ACC — are 4-0 in games decided by 1 score.
– US LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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SMU at Duke odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook | FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 12:33 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: SMU -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Duke +340 (bet $100 to win $340)
- Against the spread (ATS): SMU -11.5 (-110) | Duke +11.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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SMU at Duke picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 28, Duke 21
Moneyline
Too much juice here. PASS.
Against the spread
Look for Southern Methodist, playing its 3rd road game (with a West Coast trip in that mix) since Oct. 5, to be a fade-worthy candidate in trying to cover by this big number. The Mustangs are plus-7 in turnover margin; they are a plus-6 over their 4-game win streak. And they will be taking on a Duke squad which excels in causing havoc, especially in the front 7. The Devils are solid enough all the way around on defense and should find some turnover and/or field-position success in this night game at home.
On offense, Duke may well need some short fields. But if playing from behind, they are a) at least doing so against an SMU defense that yields a ton of explosive plays, and b) going against a Mustangs defense that has been awful in the red zone. In 21 trips inside the 20, SMU foes have tallied 16 TDs and a pair of field goals.
BACK THE BLUE DEVILS +11.5 (-110).
Over/Under
The Over is 3-1 across SMU’s last 4 games.
On a good-weather night in Durham and with the Blue Devils logging somewhat faster pace-of-play numbers of late, the OVER 48.5 (-115) is worth a sliver of a lean.
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