The final 24 hours before the NFL draft can get confusing. NFL teams pine after prospects they worry will be picked earlier in the draft. And rather than trade up to get that player, they instead elect to spread rumors about that player’s personal conduct or physical condition in an attempt to employ him.
It’s a totally normal time of year.
With teams attempting to misdirect each other to create mass confusion — and there’s sure to be even more of that in this year’s virtual draft — it’s hard to make sense of what’s real and what’s not. After all, I didn’t believe the New York Giants would take Daniel Jones at sixth overall. It looked like a smokescreen. And yet, that’s exactly what GM David Gettleman did. Still, we’re going to do our best to dissect this year’s biggest rumors with hopes of separating fact from fiction.
1. Tua Tagovailoa is going to drop
What’s been reported: ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Todd McShay openly debated Tagovailoa’s draft stock, with Kiper suggested Tagovailoa could fall due to concerns about his medical information. Former NFL executive Mike Lombardi (who worked for Bill Belichick) spoke to the Miami Herald about all sorts of medical issues for Tagovailoa, including a twice-broken wrist.
What’s probably happening: The Dolphins have probably made up their mind as to whether they’d prefer Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert or someone else at fifth overall. But surely, that was a difficult decision, considering Miami couldn’t get the Alabama quarterback in for a physical before the coronavirus pandemic shut down travel. The crazy thing is that Miami may not even take a quarterback at fifth-overall. And then we’ll be wondering the same thing about the Chargers, who haven’t indicated anything about what they’ll do at sixth-overall.
So will Tua drop? My guess is no. But these are bizarre times, inside and outside of football. There is a real chance that teams are afraid to draft Tua without a physical, just like they’re afraid to sign Cam Newton for the same reason. So it’s definitely possible.
But beware: Lombardi was a big part of creating this news — and he once worked for the New England Patriots, who are tied closely to Nick Saban and badly need a quarterback. If Tagovailoa slides and the Patriots pounce, there’s a chance we’ll be wondering if Belichick engineered the quarterback’s slide.
2. Justin Herbert is going to be the second quarterback off the board
What’s been reported: Not only are the Miami Dolphins indicating that they like Herbert, according to Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, but the New York Giants are doing a deep investigation of the prospect, too, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
What’s probably happening: The Giants looking into Herbert makes me think they think the Dolphins and/or Chargers want Herbert.
Woof. Do I need to say that again?
If that’s true, New York is pretending to want Herbert so that the Chargers or Dolphins will move up the draft board to take a quarterback. That pushes players at other positions down the draft board. So does New York want Herbert? Probably not, after taking Jones in the first round last year (Jones was fine as a rookie). Does Miami want Herbert? The Giants seem to think the Dolphins do. But this goes back to the first smokescreen: Are teams afraid of Tua’s physical condition? Because the Alabama quarterback should be the second QB off the board.
3. The Redskins could trade out of No. 2 overall
What’s been reported: The Redskins aren’t intent on moving back, but they would for the right offer, according to NFL Network.
What’s probably happening: No one will make a substantial offer. Washington will pick Chase Young at second overall.
4. The Falcons are trying to trade into the top 10 picks
What’s been reported: The Falcons want Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah or Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson, and Atlanta is prepared to move up to get one of them, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
What’s probably happening: So long as Atlanta is willing to pay the right price, they should be able to move up the board without issue. The Arizona Cardinals and the Carolina Panthers are looking to move back, per NFL Network. So if the Falcons are genuine — and it seems they are — they can totally land one of their desired cornerbacks, likely Henderson. It seems silly, because the Falcons are hardly a cornerback away. But GM Thomas Dimitroff will do what he thinks is best.
5. Jerry Jeudy’s knee is an issue
What’s been reported: The Alabama prospect has “knee issues that haven’t been disclosed yet,” according to NBC Philly’s Natalie Egenolf.
What’s probably happening: There’s nothing to see here. In fact, his agent responded to clarify this is a smokescreen. The Philadelphia Eagles badly need a receiver, and perhaps they covet Jeudy more than the other receivers. But at this point, Jeudy isn’t likely to last until 21st overall. So it would make sense for Philly to suggest Jeudy has knee issues with hopes it means he falls to them. But he won’t.
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