The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot. No color means the pick is a reasonable value at that spot.
See also:
Sleepers and Value Picks: Quarterbacks
Sleepers and Value Picks: Wide Receivers
Sleepers and Value Picks: Tight Ends
Average Draft order – Value picks
| ADP | Tm | Running Back | Starter Values |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | Christian McCaffrey | Finally healthy after two bad injury years and looked great behind the SF O-line. Consistent points every week. And that’s a lot of points. |
| 2 | LAC | Austin Ekeler | Final year of his contract and no worse than the No. 2 fantasy RB for the last two years. He may or may not get paid next year, but he’s golden for your fantasy team in 2023. |
| 3 | ATL | Bijan Robinson | This is ridiculous for a guy who hasn’t played an NFL down. But he is undeniably talented and landing on a team that will build around him and that has a very good O-line. There’s nothing wrong with reaching for an exciting player that you want to own and Robinson could replicate Saquon Barkley’s rookie year when he was the No. 1 fantasy RB. Go ahead, you know you want to. |
| 4 | NYG | Saquon Barkley | Signed the one-year deal so 2023 is a safe and productive “go” for the RB who, like McCaffrey, comes off a thrilling healthy season. |
| 5 | CLE | Nick Chubb | The No. 5 fantasy back of last year may be in his final year of the CLE contract since they have an out for 2024 when they could save $12M by releasing him. Everything to play for and should have the best quarterback of his career. |
| 6 | IND | Jonathan Taylor | Taylor, when healthy and happy, is a beast. He wasn’t healthy last year and he isn’t happy this year. He wants to be traded. Until his situation is certain, he is a coin flip with a huge payoff or a huge risk. |
| 7 | DAL | Tony Pollard | It took four years to become someone in the NFL but Pollard now takes over as the RB1 in Dallas behind a good O-line and for a team that wants to be more conservative. Never more than 193 carries a year so far, so Pollard has to prove durable but the opportunity is golden. |
| 8 | LV | Josh Jacobs | Well. Last year was pretty good. The holdout is happening but the consensus is that he’ll end up back with the Raiders. When is another question. He hasn’t fallen far enough in drafts to compensate for the risk he has so far. |
| 9 | TEN | Derrick Henry | Top-5 every year since 2019 when healthy and only hurt once. This feels like a good value and he’ll fall even further in a few drafts. He has at least one more monster season left in him. Or four or five. He’s always an outlier. |
| 10 | NE | Rhamondre Stevenson | Pats opted to turn Stevenson into a workhorse last year as the No. 7 fantasy RB. But he carries risk since the Pats historically preferred a committee backfield and they’ve poked the tires of most notable free agent backs. His upside looks likely limited while the risk of a Year 3 decline is a reality. |
| 11 | PIT | Najee Harris | Opened career as the No. 3 fantasy back but dropped back to No. 14 last year while PIT didn’t fare well post-Roethlisberger. O-line is no longer a liability and there’s a nifty leap into an easier rushing schedule this year. |
| 12 | NYJ | Breece Hall | Agreed – tremendous rusher and the ROY of 2023 until Week 8. But he returns from a torn ACL. He may be ready by Week 1, but maybe not. And how “back to form” will he immediately be? Will they take it easy with him? Hey, how many free agent backs are they going to try out? This is too early of a pick to accept so much risk. He won’t immediately be 100% in health and usage to start – lot’s of questions so early in your draft. |
| 13 | JAX | Travis Etienne | Etienne missed his rookie season with a Lis Franc injury to his foot but looked good enough in 2023 to let James Robinson go mid-season. Ran for 100 yards five times over his final ten games. Slated to do more as a receiver this year on a dangerous looking Jaguars offense. |
| 14 | SEA | Kenneth Walker III | Slow start last year with a groin pull but once Rashaad Penny had his annual season-ender, impressed with three 100-yard games to end the season. Rarely catches and the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet to rekindle a committee. Schedule also takes a downturn making him less attractive than this early RB2 price. |
| 15 | DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | Any first-round RB is fantasy relevant and this ex-Alabama is a threat whenever he touches the ball. Runs a 4.36/40-time and is an outstanding receiver. Pairs with David Montgomery but plays behind an elite O-line. One of the more exciting picks to be made in any fantasy draft. |
| 16 | HOU | Dameon Pierce | The fourth-rounder on a bad Texans’ team was a delightful surprise through Week 10 but he slowed down in the second half of the year, then landed on IR for final month with an ankle injury. Texans’ also ran him as much from a lack of passing success. New coaches, new scheme, improved passing, and a guy named Devin Singletary all work against Pierce repeating the same success. |
| 17 | CIN | Joe Mixon | Restructured contract to remain the RB1 for the Bengals and was a Top-10 for the last two years. Had a career best 60 catches last year as well. This feels very cheap. |
| 18 | CAR | Miles Sanders | Easy to find wildly different forecasts for Sanders. True – leaves the best O-line in the biz but CAR is at least average. He also leaves a dedicated committee approach for the Panthers’ new offense that still only has Chuba Hubbard as the RB2. Rookie QB Bryce Young won’t run much, and maybe won’t throw deep, but Sanders was brought in to be a dual threat on a team that will likely need him in the passing game. |
| 19 | GB | Aaron Jones | Come on. Yes, Aaron Rodgers went to New York. And Jones comes off four-straight Top-10 fantasy back seasons. Maybe Jordan Love won’t throw him the standard 50 completions but maybe he will. Packers have a great O-line and a far better rushing schedule this year. |
| 20 | BAL | J.K. Dobbins | So many reasons to love and hate Dobbins. Better rushing schedule, top O-line, better passing should be less defensive focus on him. Big fan of new OC Todd Monken. But missed 2021 with a torn ACL and then needed a clean-up midseason missing eight games last season. Never catches the ball but had three nice yardage efforts last year. But apparently is holding out in final year of rookie contract. Maybe he returns to team, stays healthy and produces this level of production. And maybe continues to hold out with almost zero leverage and/or gets hurt yet again. |
| 21 | MIN | Alexander Mattison | Have to like his ascension into being the RB1 with Dalvin Cook gone. But his four NFL seasons have all been sub-500-yard rushing efforts with minor work as a receiver. Vikes did not add any obvious challengers to him. He’s probably worth around this pick but any upside from here would not follow from what he’s done so far. |
| 22 | TB | Rachaad White | I am liking White more as the summer wears on, and he’s impressed coaches with no real competition for touches on the roster. The Bucs’ rushing schedule is also much better this year but the O-line has declined to one of the worst. He’s worth this pick, and seems to have a little upside, but that depends on how well the Bucs can throw post-Brady. |
| 23 | FA | Dalvin Cook | Was a lock for 1,500 total yards and eight touchdowns for the last four years, but the Vikes moved on and saved a ton of cash. This end of the RB2 level is comfortable since he should step into a fantasy relevant role before the season starts. He’ll be adjusted depending on where he lands. |
| 24 | PHI | D’Andre Swift | He is better than you probably think, and never worse than the No. 21 fantasy back for his three years. Trades one great O-line for another. But Eagles will use a committee and Swift misses at least three games per year. He’s likely to see more catches and fewer runs while in Philly. He’s a far better “best ball” pick than someone to rely on every week as a fantasy starter. |
Sleepers and overvalued players
| ADP | Tm | Running Back | Depth Considerations |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | LAR | Cam Akers | Never better than the No. 32 fantasy back in his three seasons so this already feels optimistic. The Rams sport the worst O-line in the NFL and are trying to dust themselves off from the collapse of 2022. Struggled last year until final three games had him with 100+ yards versus the three worst run defenses. Lacks consistency at best, and looks good only against really bad opponents. |
| 26 | DEN | Javonte Williams | Encouraging rookie season was followed by blowing out multiple knee ligaments in Week 4 of last year. He’s back in practice though has been limited in some practices as he returns to health. He’ll likely be better later in the season but offers some upside for a RB3 pick. |
| 27 | ARI | James Conner | He’s always good for 1,000 total yards and eight scores or so. Cardinals O-line is not a strength but the rebuilding team is situated to run the ball more than they should this year, and Conner offers a good set of hands from the backfield when they pass. He will miss three games or more since he always does. But he’s a fair RB3 with no real competition for touches. He’s never been worse than No. 19 while with the Cardinals. |
| 28 | KC | Isiah Pacheco | The summer sensation of 2022 eventually took the lead role in the second half of the season. He ended with around 80 total yards per game and scored in four of the final seven games while playing through a torn labrum that has since been fixed. Chiefs will involve other backs, but Pacheco emerged as their best runner and they own the No. 1 best rushing schedule this year. |
| 29 | BUF | James Cook | Improved over his rookie season as the No. 2 back, Devin Singletary left and now Cook gets his shot. He has impressed this summer but the Bills added Damien Harris and have always used a committee. But Cook carries upside in this offense and could rise in the rankings this summer. |
| 30 | DET | David Montgomery | Has never been worse that the No. 24 fantasy back and won’t have a quarterback stealing yards and touchdowns. Lions own one of the top O-lines and Montgomery is a dual threat. Has to share with Jahmyr Gibbs, but the offense is far better than he had in Chicago. |
| 31 | WAS | Antonio Gibson | New OC Eric Bieniemy is talking up Gibson as a receiver and he’s been no worse than this level in three seasons. He’s a cheap RB3 in a reception point league. |
| 32 | GB | AJ Dillon | Dillon won’t offer RB1 stats ever, but he’s a solid complement for the Packers and their great O-line. There is risk with Jordan Love taking over, but Dillion is a reliable back with around 1,000 total yards and six or so touchdowns. That should continue and potentially even get a small bump if the Packers struggle to connect with their wideouts. |
| 33 | NO | Alvin Kamara | He was a lock for Top-10 stats but fell to only No. 16 last year during the Saints struggles. Is he a RB3 now? This all depends on the resolution/suspension from his legal issues. The Saints O-line is no longer an advantage but the schedule is kind and the addition of Derek Carr should help the passing effort. Carr doesn’t run, so Kamara should get back to his higher level of receptions. Pending the suspension, this feels like a good value for a player that has appeared to be back in shape and reinvigorated. Even if he misses some games. |
| 34 | WAS | Brian Robinson Jr. | He’s the rushing half of the backfield and new OC Eric Bieniemy looks to improve the production. Robinson missed the first month of 2022 and enters the season as a healthy starter with no new holes that need to heal. Not a ton of upside, but he’s a decent RB4 to fill in when needed and at worse, a handful of points each week. |
| 35 | NO | Jamaal Williams | The hope in Williams joining the backfield is that they can reprise the Mark Ingram role from a few years back. Williams blew up last year with 17 touchdowns for the Lions and should be a great complement for Alvin Kamara and even better if Kamara misses any games from suspension. |
| 36 | MIA | Devon Achane | The Dolphins already have a logjam in the backfield and that’s without them adding one of the free-agent running backs by the start of the season. Achane draws attention because he ran a 4.32 40-time at the NFL combine and looks great in camp. But he is only 5-9 and 188 yards and likely won’t offer any consistent production. But – rookie rusher with jaw-dropping speed always deserves a roster spot. |
| 37 | CHI | Khalil Herbert | Spent two years behind David Montgomery but now has a chance to be the RB1 in Chicago. Hasn’t rushed more than 129 times in a season so far but was effective. He’ll contend with a quarterback that runs and scores, plus D’Onta Foreman who could end up taking over after his big year with the Panthers. Herbert missed at least three games each season despite never having more than 138 touches. |
| 38 | DEN | Samaje Perine | Lands in Denver along with new HC Sean Payton in an offense that wants to rebound from 2022. He’ll safely be the RB2 there unless Javonte Williams struggles in his return from knee surgery. |
| 39 | PHI | Rashaad Penny | What a great best ball pick and a bad redraft league option. Penny may well start the year as the Eagle’s primary rusher. But they rely on a committee, D’Andre Swift is also there, and Penny’s career consistency with landing on IR is at 100% for his five NFL seasons. He’ll have at least two great games, maybe a few more, but history says it is not a name you’ll mention in December. Maybe not November. October? Which part? |
| 40 | SEA | Zach Charbonnet | The UCLA stud was the third running back drafted this year and is slated to pair with Kenneth Walker. At least when he is healthy. He’s out “indefinitely” with a shoulder injury and that could mean anything since there is no official injury reporting until the season starts. Until there is clarity, or he returns, he is fantasy roster depth and a great handcuff for the Walker owner. |
| 41 | BUF | Damien Harris | Harris was productive with the Pats with as many as 15 touchdowns in 2021. But he’s often injured and lost his job to Rhamondre Stevenson. Now he lands with the Bills which sounds interesting, but they use a committee approach and James Cook is getting all the hype this summer. |
| 42 | SF | Elijah Mitchell | Great handcuff for the Christian McCaffrey owner and upside if Mitchell filled in as the primary. Missed at least six games injured himself every year, so there is downside as well. Would never merit a fantasy start if McCaffrey was healthy. |
| 43 | CHI | D’Onta Foreman | The Bears moved on from David Montgomery and replaced him with Foreman who ran for 914 yards and five TDs for the Panthers last year. Almost zero experience as a receiver, and any touchdown role will be decreased thanks to Justin Fields, but Foreman could end up with the bulk of carries competing with just Khalil Herbert. |
| 44 | KC | Jerick McKinnon | He’s 31 years old and found no takers as a free agent so re-signed with the Chiefs. He’s been highly productive for small stretches of games but never used consistently. Worth a RB4 pick just in case he gets hot again for a month. |
| 45 | PIT | Jaylen Warren | Just a backup to Najee Harris but may see more work as the RB2 since the Steelers want to focus more on the run this season. The UFDA ran for 379 yards and caught 28 passes for 214 yards, so he’s bye-week filler if the matchup is right. |
| 46 | FA | Kareem Hunt | He’s only 27 and hasn’t been worked into the ground. But he fell to 3.8 yards per carry behind the Browns line last year and now as a free agent is rarely spoken about. He’s one of the group of free agent backs wishing for the old days, and probably the least likely to end up with a significant role this season. |
| 47 | JAX | Tank Bigsby | Solid backup for Travis Etienne who is impressing as an inside rusher and definite RB2 for the Jags improving offense. Great handcuff for Etienne and could produce stand-alone fantasy value in any case. |
| 48 | ATL | Tyler Allgeier | Handcuff for Bijan Robinson but won’t yield fantasy relevant stats barring an unthinkable injury to the rookie. |
| 49 | HOU | Devin Singletary | Played out four years in Buffalo with around 1,000 total yards and six or so touchdowns per year. Never was set loose with a high if 188 carries in that offense and now pairs with Dameon Pierce which should ding both backs potential fantasy points. But the offense is new and Singletary could carve out a third down role plus Pierce hasn’t proven durable yet. |
| 50 | NO | Kendre Miller | Solid pick with upside and a handcuff for Alvin Kamara who appears likely to be suspended for a stretch. Miller was the fourth back drafted this spring and is a play for the future with Kamara helping to mentor him. Jamaal Williams is likely the RB2 so Miller may be underused other than filling in for any suspension games of Kamara. |
| 51 | DAL | Ezekiel Elliott | So maybe that previous monster contract fed into the current reticence of the NFL to pay any running back. But Elliott is only 27 and by report in better shape now that the cruise control is broken. As a RB5, he’s a solid stash in the second half of your draft that should end up somewhere, mostly relegated to goal line, short yardage and relief work. But he won’t be signed to just watch where ever he ends up which may be back home in Dallas. |
| 52 | MIA | Raheem Mostert | The Dolphins use a committee and there’s always the chance that they add another free agent back before the season starts. Offers a great bye-week filler if he is healthy still and managed three 100-totl yard efforts last year. |
| 53 | TB | Leonard Fournette | Same as the other free agent backs – waiting by the phone. There’s speculation that Fournette’s biggest problem is that he isn’t as dedicated to his craft as he could be and that his inattention to his weight is just one symptom. Still, he could become fantasy relevant at some point, particularly if a team loses their RB1 during the season and needs quick help. |
| 54 | TEN | Tyjae Spears | He could have future appeal and the ex-Tulane back was the fifth rookie back taken. But as long as Derrick Henry is wearing a helmet, Spears is just a handcuff. |
| 55 | CHI | Roschon Johnson | The ex-high school quarterback switched to running back at Texas but then ended up watching Bijan Robinson peel off highlight reels. Johnson’s ceiling is still not known and he’ll be behind Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman but nothing is set in stone in Chicago. |
| 56 | CAR | Chuba Hubbard | When they let Christian McCaffrey go last year, Hubbard didn’t take over. D’Onta Foreman finally caught his career on fire while Hubbard got hurt and was overall worse than his rookie season. The Panthers brought in Miles Sanders as the RB1 and Hubbard is just a handcuff. |
| 57 | ATL | Cordarrelle Patterson | The 32-year-old Patterson trailed off badly last season and is finally showing his age. If Patterson offers any consistent fantasy value, it will happen alongside every Bijan Robinson owner screaming “get up! Get up! Noooo!” |
| 58 | PHI | Kenneth Gainwell | Gainwell may offer fantasy value during the season should other injuries occur and the committee approach adds him back into the mix, but he’ll end up as one of your first throwbacks during free agent waivers. |
| 59 | MIA | Jeff Wilson | He’ll be in the mix for the Dolphins but likely won’t offer more than a bye-week filler unless Raheem Mostert is injured. And – they don’t sign another free agent back. |
| 60 | CLE | Jerome Ford | Handcuff for the Nick Chubb owner. The former fifth-round pick of last year steps up to take Kareem Hunts RB2 role and may end up with minor fantasy value. |
Best of the rest
Gus Edwards (BAL) – Deserves a fantasy roster spot as the RB2 on a Ravens’ team that wants to run. J.K. Dobbins is unhappy and not all that durable.
Zamir White (LV) – The rookie of 2022 did nothing but will gain a role if Josh Jacobs holds out. Worthwhile final round pick to see what happens.
Deuce Vaughn (DAL) – He’s too small for an every down role at 5-5 and 179 pounds but the backfield is in transition and could make room for others behind Tony Pollard so long as Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t end back up in Dallas.