The Buffalo Bills made a splash at the start of the league’s new year by trading four draft picks for wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The move gives quarterback Josh Allen the closest thing to a No.1 wide receiver during the signal caller’s time in the NFL.
It’s easy to see how Allen will be a winner from this move. The Bills starting receiving corps of Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley will present matchup options for defenses that will benefit Allen. Add in the athleticism of Dawson Knox at tight and Devin Singletary out of the backfield, and the collection of skill position players give the Bills a great chance at seeing the postseason once again. But one outlet, while calling Allen a winner, also called him a loser in this deal.
Sports Illustrated named Allen a winner from the Diggs acquisition because:
This is part of a two-sided point, but Allen now has a legitimate No. 1 playmaker on offense—Stefon Diggs—at which to direct his cannon. Last year was a victory for scheme design in Buffalo, which allowed Allen to take a statistical leap forward. Just take a look at his 2018 and 2019 ratios in intended air yards per pass and actual air yards. This past year, the offense broke in a way that allowed him to find the target with a much higher upside without the risk. The completion percentage goes up, the interceptions go down and the quarterback rating rises to “OK we can win with this.”
In his third season, it seems that Allen is primed to take off with this offense. Buffalo has removed any barriers for him to succeed.
However, there’s the flip side. SI tabbed Allen the “losers” in free agency. Even with the upgrade at wide receiver, the outlet suggests the marriage of Allen and Diggs could backfire:
Here’s the other side of the coin for Allen, listed as both a winner and loser. Should he flounder this season, it may be an indication that his time is coming to an end in Buffalo. I know that sounds drastic, but coaches are becoming less and less patient with draft picks. The stigma associated with moving on from high draft choices has largely dissipated thanks to the Cardinals and Josh Rosen. Allen now has a legitimately good coordinator and legitimately good surrounding pieces. The leap from year two to year three must be more significant than year one to year two.
Another downside to the Diggs trade: Are we sure it is a good idea to pair Diggs, a receiver who has been vocal about his target share in the past, with a quarterback who has the fifth-worst completion percentage above expectation rating? Could anything go wrong there?
Now, it’s a bit hyperbolic thinking that the Bills will grow impatient with Allen. When they drafted him, the team knew that Allen would be a bit of a project. After being thrust into the starting role during his rookie season, Allen took some lumps and continued to show promise. His sophomore season was better, as he made progress with limiting mistakes. It wasn’t the ideal season, though. However, Allen’s second year was not the performance for which the Bills drafted him seventh overall in the 2018 draft.
Buffalo expects Allen to make a major step forward in Year 3. They have found additional pieces to upgrade the defense, offering a strong complementary unit to work with Allen’s offense.
It would be more surprising to see Allen regress this season, as he enters his third year working with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. The Diggs transaction elevates the Bills offense into a more productive and explosive unit.
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