Should you bet anyone to win the Super Bowl? That’s a personal question I suppose. Some would say no. I’d definitely argue yes. In the spirit of trying to break the BetMGM book, let’s take a look at the Green Bay Packers’ case to win Super Bowl LIV.
NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Thursday at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Green Bay Packers playoff futures
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NFC Champion: +400
First things first, can the Packers win the NFC championship? I’d argue the best value to win the NFC is the Packers. Considering they are the No. 2 seed entering the playoffs, which earned them a bye in the first round and home-field advantage against every NFC opponent aside from the San Francisco 49ers, isn’t there inherent value in taking the Packers (the third favorite to make it out of the NFC)?
Lambeau Field is arguably the strongest home-field advantage in the NFL. Factor in winter conditions and beating the Cheeseheads at Lambeau in January is a rare feat. Since 2008 (when Aaron Rodgers became the Packers’ starting quarterback), Green Bay has the best record in the NFL as a home favorite at 52-33-3.
Also, the Packers are 28-15 straight up in the Rodgers era when having a rest advantage over opponents (sixth-best in the NFL). Given these factors, and their future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. PACKERS (+400) to win the NFC is the best value on the board.
Super Bowl: +800
Banking on our Packers +400 bet slip to win the NFC title to cash, what are the chances the PACKERS (+800) win Super Bowl LIV? Many consider the Packers an overrated team heading into the playoffs, but they’ve consistently exceeded expectations this season. The definition of expectations made for a sports team is how they perform against sportsbooks’ odds.
The Packers beat their projected regular-season NFL win total of nine (13-3 straight up) and they had the sixth-best record against the spread in the NFL (10-6 ATS). Winning and appearing in only one Super Bowl in the Rodgers era can be viewed as a disappointment for the Packers, but their 10-5-1 ATS record in playoff games is the second-best in the NFL since 2008 (minimum of three games played).
Rodgers isn’t having his typical MVP-caliber season but the Packers should still be considered a dual-threat offense. Rodgers’ down-year included 4,002 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and just four interceptions on a 62% completion rate. But running back Aaron Jones has provided Rodgers with a quarterback’s best friend with a strong run game.
Jones ran for 1,084 yards and tied with an NFL-leading 16 rushing touchdowns. His production is key to the Packers offense; the Packers won all five of the games in which Jones ran for 100-plus yards. Rodgers’ favorite target—WR Davante Adams—missed four games but is healthy to end the season, and he can get a little healthier because of the Packers first-round bye. Adams got rolling at the end of the regular season, catching 27 balls with 312 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the final three games of the season.
The Packers defense is ranked ninth in opponent’s points scored. The last time the Packers were in the top-10 in that category was in 2010 (ranked second) when they won Super Bowl XLV. Their defense is led by two legit pass rushers—both added this past offseason—in DE Preston Smith (12 sacks) and DE Za’Darius Smith (13.5 sacks and NFL-leader in pressures). Based on the Packers’ ability to play complementary football and the wide-open landscape of the NFL entering the postseason, take the PACKERS (+800) to win the whole damn thing.
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