The 2021 draft class represents a salient milestone for the Gruden/Mayock regime in Las Vegas. Their third draft class together will play a crucial role in the future of the franchise.
Before you comment below, I know it is way too early to have this conversation. The draft is still over a month away. There haven’t been many pro days (and there won’t be a combine). Free agency hasn’t started yet. I understand all of that. I still think that this is a conversation that is worth having because I think that there is a player that Gruden and Mayock are going to think very highly of.
Before we have a conversation on what the Raiders WILL do let’s take a look at what they HAVE done. In their first draft class together the Raiders were blessed with three first-round picks, a haul that is practically unheard of in this day and age.
With their first pick, Gruden and Mayock shocked the world by taking Clemson EDGE defender Clelin Ferrell fourth overall in the 2019 draft. Ferrell was considered by most draft experts as a mid-first-round pick at best. There wasn’t a single analyst, fan, or NFL personnel executive outside of the Raiders organization that saw that pick coming.
The fact of the matter is that Ferrell’s film wasn’t the film of a top-five draft pick. That’s not to say that Ferrell was a bad choice or that Mayock and Gruden made a mistake but it is a selection that warrants examination.
So if Ferrell didn’t have top-five film, then why was he taken so early? Over the last couple of years, the answer to that question has become slightly more clear. We are fortunate to have acquired a large sample size in terms of data to analyze what Mayock and Gruden look for in first-round picks.
In their two draft classes, they have made five first-round picks. The aforementioned Ferrel was joined by Alabama running back Josh Jacobs and Mississippi State safety Johnathan Abram in the first round of the 2019 NFL draft. In 2020 the Raiders select Alabama wide receiver Henry Ruggs III and Ohio State cornerback Damon Arnette in the first round.
These players all have a few things in common. First, they all play for big-time Power-5 programs: Clemson, Alabama (x2), Mississippi State, and Ohio State. Second, they all played positions of need. GMs will tell you repeatedly that they will draft the best player on their board regardless of need, the fact of the matter is that the board accounts for positions of need and in every instance, the Raiders have picked players that could all start at their position in year one.
One of the main reasons cited for the Ferrell selection was his ability to play true 4-3 defensive end. Scheme fit and positional need played a huge role in that selection. The third trend that we see is an emphasis on leadership. Gruden and Mayock spoke ad nauseam about changing the culture for the Raiders. They spoke about bringing in players that could lead by example and bring a winning mentality and relentless effort onto the football field.
Regardless of what you think of Mayock and Gruden’s first couple of draft classes, they have made their priorities clear both in their words and in their actions.
Now that that’s all out of the way, who might the Raiders look to draft in 2021? First, let’s start by taking a look at positions of need. The offense was pretty productive in 2020 and the defense was historically bad. Add in the fact that the team is bringing in a brand new defensive coordinator and scheme that will require significant personnel changes.
Drafting an off-ball LB doesn’t make a ton of sense considering how much money is tied up in Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski. They could use some help in the defensive backfield but there is a decent chance that none of the top tier cornerbacks fall and at this point and there isn’t a safety in this class that makes a lot of sense this early in the first round.
Along the interior defensive line, the story is similar, there isn’t a clear first-round talent in this class. An argument could be made for an offensive tackle, that is an idea that warrants exploring at some point in the future but with as bad as the offense was last year, I would hope that they would address that side of the ball. That leaves pass rush.
In his introductory press conference new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley echoed the importance of pass rushers in his scheme “If you can affect the quarterback, you have a good chance to help your team make it to that level that you’re all shooting for and then you know what goes on from there. That’s why I think upfront is so important.”
So let’s look at pass rushers that go to big-time schools. We will just call this power five schools for now. That is a pretty big list.
I started my evaluation of the 2021 draft class with EDGE rushers. I expected to be underwhelmed based on what I have heard about the depth of that position this year but I was pleasantly surprised.
There are several really talented pass rushers this year. It will be tough to know where my rankings fall before athletic testing results are available and SURGE calculations can be performed, but there will almost certainly be several players that warrant first-round selection.
During film study, I found one EDGE rusher that just felt like a Raiders draft pick. Joseph Ossai isn’t my top-ranked EDGE in this year’s class, but he will end up near the top of the list and he checks all of the boxes for the Raiders. Ossai is an incredible athlete and pass rusher that could fit in well to the SAM linebacker role in the Raider’s new defensive scheme.
I wrote an article on the specifics of that scheme but suffice to say Ossai could succeed there. Check that box. In addition to addressing a need for the defense, Ossai is also coming out of a Power-5 school. While Texas hasn’t had the same kind of success in recent years as other top-flight programs, it is certainly a program that carries weight and respect. Check that box. Finally, leadership and effort. Ossai is well known as a vocal and emotional leader for the Longhorns, and I challenge you to find a play that Ossai took off. Check that box.
Ossai is a supremely talented pass rusher that wins with his hands, his unstoppable effort, and his explosive first step. Ossai may not be as athletic as some other pass rushers in this class such as Kwity Paye or Carlos Basham but he posted really impressive numbers at his pro day including a 41.5” vertical at 256 pounds. He also doesn’t necessarily have the same level of strength as a guy like Gregory Rousseau, or the bend of Azeez Ojulari. That’s all fine, Ossai still knows how to get to the QB and generate a pass rush.
And yes, I know some of you will be concerned with his Oklahoma State film, but Teven Jenkins is a very good football player in his own right, and despite getting beat by Jenkins a few times in that game, Ossai still made plenty of plays – including a game-winning sack in overtime against Jenkins. We will talk about that play later.
Here are a handful of plays that demonstrate what Ossai can bring to the table. In my opinion, Ossai’s three most valuable traits as a pass rusher are his motor, his hands, and his explosive first step.
Motor is an underrated trait for NFL EDGE defenders. It is one of the reasons that Maxx Crosby had double-digit sacks in his rookie season despite making the jump from Eastern Michigan. Good things happen when you’re around the football and Ossai often is. I never see Ossai give up on a play or really ever even slow down. And his ability to maintain this level of effort throughout an entire game and even into overtime is a testament to the work he puts in during the week when it comes to strength and conditioning.
Here we see a play against Texas Tech in overtime. The running back is trying to catch a swing pass from the QB, traveling to the offense’s left-hand side (i.e. away from Ossai). Ossai continues to rally to the ball to scoop up a game-winning fumble.
Here against Oklahoma State, we see the TE on the offense’s right attempting to down block Ossai. Despite being held and fighting off the TE, Ossai is able to track down Chuba Hubbard from the backside and make a TFL.
This is one of the plays that really epitomizes the sheer effort that he plays with. He takes on a pulling guard to maintain the EDGE as the force player. When the play continues down the field, Ossai sprints past his teammates and the Oklahoma offense to not only make the tackle but also punch the ball out and force a turnover.
Next, let’s talk about Ossai’s hand usage during his pass rush. In a lot of instances, the timing and proficiency of an EDGE defender’s hand technique can really separate good players from great players, and it is often one of the skills that take the longest to develop for athletes making the jump to the NFL.
Here we see Ossai’s proficiency using his hands. He is rushing against the left tackle taking an inside path to the QB. The tackle is slightly off balance and strikes his hands too early. Ossai takes advantage by swiping the tackle’s hands and using an inside swim to pursue upfield. He isn’t able to finish the sack, but he gets pressure and forces an off-platform throw.
This is a play that may not look like much initially, but it’s important to understand what Ossai is capable of as a run defender. Ossai is lined up against the left tackle, he quickly engages and sets a firm EDGE. When he realizes that the RB is going to cut back inside, Ossai is able to quickly extend his arms, disengage from the LT, and make a tackle for only a short gain.
There are a lot of EDGE defenders that struggle to disengage quickly enough to make that play. Despite being outweighed by about 60 pounds, Ossai is able to really control this rep.
Finally, let’s talk about explosion. Ossai isn’t necessarily the most explosive pass rusher in this draft class but his first step is certainly dynamic enough to win at the next level. A quick first step and the ability to convert speed to power are desirable traits for the SAM position in Gus Bradley’s defense and Ossai certainly possesses those skills.
Here we see Ossai playing over the right tackle. He explodes out of his stance and attacks the half-man, using his speed and another nice swim move to generate quick pressure and QB hit.
Finally, here is one of my favorite plays by Ossai. On the last play of overtime vs Oklahoma State, Ossai is lined up in a wide-9 alignment. He beats Teven Jenkins around the corner and sprints upfield to make a diving sack to win the game.
I really enjoyed listening to Ossai describe his thought process during this play, in an interview that can be found here. I linked the time stamp to where he talks about this play in particular, but the whole interview is a good listen.
Ossai is not a perfect prospect, but he has traits that I would bet on succeeding. He really checks all of the boxes that the Gruden and Mayock regime have looked for in past drafts. If the draft was today, I would expect Joseph Ossai to be a Raider.
Written by Seth Murphy. You can follow him on Twitter @SethMurphyBBD.
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