The Atlanta Falcons have an 0-5 record. Let that sink in.
They had been a mostly average team since they were up 28-3 on the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI. But they’ve been downright awful in 2020 and now coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff have been fired.
The question now is where the franchise goes from here. Although the Falcons have specialized in making winning look far too complicated this season, it seems quite possible that they might make a mess of losing, too. That’s the best plan: Just tank.
But it won’t be simple.
The Falcons, on paper, are a fairly talented team. That’s what made their 2020 season so disappointing. At times, that talent showed. This season, Atlanta built leads against the Chicago Bears and the Dallas Cowboys — and Atlanta failed to defend those leads in historically awful fashion. But there’s a coin-flip element to games that are so close, and the Falcons are due for some better luck.
Over the last 20 seasons, no team has blown multiple 15-point fourth quarters leads in a single season.
The Falcons just did it in back-to-back weeks.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 27, 2020
Atlanta has too much talent to continue on listlessly. The Falcons look capable of winning games, at least more so than the other bottom-of-the-barrel teams in the NFL.
Which is going to make a full-out tank difficult.
This season, it’s more paramount than ever that tanking teams lose as many games as possible. There’s a prize waiting at the end of a dark, disappointing 0-16 season. I’ll give you a hint: he’s got long blond locks and has a sensational proclivity toward big-time throws but seems to lack some sensibility about current affairs. Yes, I’m talking about Clemson’s prized quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the most desirable college prospect since Andrew Luck (or Peyton Manning before him.)
Lawrence makes the No. 1 overall pick — and, in turn, the 32nd spot in the standings — a tremendous accomplishment reward for ineptitude. If the Falcons are going to tank, they’re going to want to finish 32nd, not 31st. Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields may end up being an excellent consolation prize — but from what I’ve seen, he isn’t on the same level as Lawrence.
So how do the Falcons get to No. 1? They’ll have to lose to bad teams and good teams alike. That’s the weekly game plan. Atlanta has easy games against the Detroit Lions, the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers. What we saw in Week 3 when the Falcons stayed tight with the Bears is that Atlanta can compete with decent NFL teams. Atlanta can’t keep doing that. Say it with me: Quality football is no longer the answer.
The New York Jets, New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions are all making simultaneously convincing cases to finish last in the NFL. They could certainly jeopardize a Falcons’ bid for 32nd in the NFL. Atlanta could be a three-win team. That might keep them in the top 5 — but out of that much-desired top spot.
Even if the Falcons do finish at the bottom of the league, a draft rebuild, however, is complicated for the Falcons on a few levels. It’s not like they are the 2019 Miami Dolphins, who had a huge stockpile of draft picks and an enormous amount of cap space to stage a fast turnaround by restocking during the 2020 offseason. Atlanta’s outlook — at least for the 2021 offseason — is not pretty. They have all of their draft picks, but significant cap problems: They’re projected to be nearly $25 million over the cap.
Even if the Falcons do find themselves in a position where they could draft Lawrence or Fields, the Falcons have another problem: Matt Ryan. He’s been the team’s franchise QB since 2008, and has a contract that ostensibly extends through 2023. The Falcons would have to wait until after the league year started in 2021 to move on from Ryan; his contract would leave the team with a dead-cap hit of at least $44 million if it moved him earlier.
Of course Atlanta could also keep Ryan around for the first year of a rookie’s tenure, but that brings with it other possible complications. So Atlanta may be stuck with an awkward two-QB situation — but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be worthwhile for the Falcons to live with their ex for a year. Ryan is 35 years old, and ranks 17th this year among quarterbacks this year, according to Pro Football Focus grading.
If the Falcons have an opportunity to upgrade their quarterback on a more favorable rookie contract, they’re going to take it, no matter the discomfort for Ryan. That’s what the Arizona Cardinals did (with Kyler Murray and Josh Rosen). That’s what the Miami Dolphins did (with Tua Tagovailoa and Rosen). That’s what the Washington Football Team seems likely to do (with a soon-to-be-named rookie quarterback and Dwayne Haskins).
This Falcons roster is not good enough to compete for playoff contention, especially not in a division that presently includes Tom Brady and Drew Brees. But those quarterbacks are aging and their declines or retirements could provide a window for Atlanta in the coming years. The Falcons would be wise to #TankForTrevor — he should have a franchise-changing impact in Atlanta.
It will be up to a new GM to make the cap situation work — and, in the NFL, it’s generally always possible to escape cap hell in one season. And if that season leads to another tank … all the better.
The Falcons chose to run it back this year, hoping that a late surge to end last season would continue. But the overall trend — steeply downward — has continued, and a full rebuild looms. Winning zero games is the clearest path to Lawrence and quarterback prosperity, the only sure-fire way to win Super Bowls in today’s NFL.
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