See what odds Ken Pomeroy gives Oregon of winning Pac-12 title

The Oregon Ducks are in an unfavorable position heading into the Pac-12 tournament and four straight must win games ahead of them.

Wednesday, March 9 marks the beginning of the Pac-12 men’s basketball tournament, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas all week long.

For Dana Altman’s Oregon Ducks, bringing home the trophy is quite likely the only way they will hear their name called on Selection Sunday for the opportunity to participate in the NCAA Tournament this year, following a pair of disastrous losses this past week to Washington and Washington State.

Winning the Pac-12 tournament was always going to be a tough task for this streaky Oregon team, but now it looks like they might have to do it without a fully healthy Will Richardson, as the senior guard is battling concussion-like symptoms, which kept him out of the game against the Cougars.

While this Oregon team has the talent to compete with the best of the Pac-12, they are not given particularly favorable odds at winning the whole thing – at least not from renowned college basketball analytics expert Ken Pomeroy.

Pomeroy’s statistical model gives Oregon a solid 41.2% chance of making the semifinals, and a 7.2% chance of playing in the title game, but just a 2.1% chance of winning it all – which is what they need to feel secure heading into Selection Sunday.

An appearance in the Pac-12 title game would likely mean a win over Arizona – which is a nice boost to Oregon’s floundering resume – and if they can do that and keep things close against either UCLA or USC in the title game, there is a small chance they could get a play-in game opportunity, depending how other bubble teams do this week.

However, Altman and co won’t want to be sweating on Sunday afternoon, so you can bet the goal will be to leave no doubt and secure the Pac-12’s automatic bid with a four-game winning streak, starting Wednesday afternoon against Oregon State.

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