The Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-11) take on the No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide (26-5) in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals in Nashville on Friday at 1 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Mississippi State vs. Alabama odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
Despite losing the final game of the regular season 67-61 to Texas A&M, Alabama still finished a great season as the top seed in the SEC tournament. It also has an inside track at a top seed in March Madness if it can take care of business this weekend.
After defeating the Bulldogs 78-67 on the road Dec. 28 as a 1-point favorite, the Crimson Tide had a more difficult time at home Jan. 25 winning 66-63 game after coming in favored by 12 points.
With an offense that ranks 314th in the nation at 66.4 points per game, the Bulldogs use a top-10 defense at 60.4 PPG to hold teams down. Against an Alabama team which ranks 7th in scoring (82.8 PPG), Mississippi State will need to do this once again to pull off an upset in Nashville.
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Mississippi State at Alabama odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mississippi State +265 (bet $100 to win $265) | Alabama -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mississippi State +7.5 (-105) | Alabama -7.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 137.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mississippi State vs. Alabama picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 77, Mississippi State 67
Moneyline
PASS.
Alabama is the far superior team in this game. The Tide, behind potential player-of-the-year candidate Brandon Miller, are on track for a No. 1 seed and have their sights set on the 1st Final Four in school history.
Mississippi State has a good defense. But the offense will not be able to compete with Alabama. But at -340, Alabama is not a bet worth making straight.
Against the spread
ALABAMA -7.5 (-110).
With the offense of Alabama, which ranks 7th at 82.8 points being the best unit on the floor, the Crimson Tide will be able to force the Bulldogs to play a fast pace. Something the Bulldogs are uncomfortable doing.
This level of uncomfortable play will be enough to make the Mississippi State defense, which ranks 10th, to falter and make mistakes.
After starting off close, the game will become more lopsided in the second half as Alabama begins to use its 3-point shooting and rebounding t pull away from Mississippi State. -7.5 for Alabama is the side to wager on.
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Against the spread
OVER 137.5 (-115).
It may not go Over by a lot, but the Alabama offense will get this game Over the total by games end.
Despite having the 10th-ranked scoring defense, the last 4 Mississippi State games have gone Over. The Bulldogs have also gone Over in 4 of their last 5 games following a win.
For the Tide, the Over has hit in 4 straight neutral site games and they have also gone Over the total in 4 of 5 overall.
Unless this game gets to overtime, I do not see a 90-point showing from either team. But I expect Alabama getting to 75. And this will be enough to get this game Over the 137.5 total.
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