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The Seattle Mariners (84-69) and Texas Rangers (85-68) meet for the middle game of a 3-game series. First pitch at Globe Life Field is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rangers lead 6-1
Seattle dropped Friday’s series opener 8-5 and has lost 5 straight to the Rangers. The Mariners are 6-9 over their last 15 games on the road.
Texas has won 3 straight games, clubbing 14 extra-base hits and posting a 1.007 OPS along the way. Friday’s contest marked the 1st of 7 games between these postseason contenders the rest of the way. Heading into Saturday’s action, the Rangers lead the AL West; they are a half-game ahead of the Houston Astros and 1 game ahead of Seattle.
Mariners at Rangers projected starters
RHP Logan Gilbert vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery
Gilbert (13-6, 3.77 ERA) makes his 31st start of the season. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 179 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-1 home loss vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday
- 2023 road stats: 9-1, 3.41 ERA in 95 IP across 16 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Rangers: 1-1, 2.08 ERA in 30 1/3 IP
- Has struggled in September, allowing an .821 OPS over 4 starts; That stretch, however, has been alongside a .339 batting average on balls in play
Montgomery (9-11, 3.38 ERA) makes his 31st start of the season. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 175 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K in 4-2 home loss vs. Boston Red Sox Monday
- 2023 Home stats: 6-5, 3.88 ERA in 92 2/3 IP across 16 starts for the St. Louis Cardinals and Rangers
- Has faced Seattle in 1 other start, allowing 3 R in 6 2/3 IP July 8, 2021
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Mariners at Rangers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 10:18 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rangers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-190) | Rangers -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Mariners at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 3, Mariners 2
Moneyline
A good pitching match-up and 2 evenly-matched teams overall. Can’t split ’em: PASS.
Same gray area as above but surrounded by more juice. AVOID.
Over/Under
Both clubs have some offensive numbers not fully supported by analytic measures, and that opens up their combined efforts to an Under lean.
The concept of batting average on balls in play figures prominently in how both offenses can be figures as being too far over their skis. The MLB average BABIP is .297, and it’s a “sticky” number with gravity: when splits are significantly above or below that .297, we can project some movement back the other way.
Key Seattle BABIPs: .306 in road games, .316 with runners in scoring position, .352 last month (when perhaps many bettors started to overrate what has mostly been an average offense).
Key Texas BABIPs: .314 overall, .325 with RISP, .330 in high-leverage situations.
In a game with two solid starting pitchers … with back ends of bullpens fully available … and with a Texas bullpen being underrated by a significant margin, BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-110).
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