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The Seattle Mariners (12-12) take on the Texas Rangers (13-12) Thursday in the finale of a 3-game set at Globe Life Field at 2:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Mariners fell 5-1 Wednesday to even the series at 1. They scored their lone run in the 1st inning and couldn’t add on despite scattering 8 hits in the game. OF Julio Rodriguez has yet to find his power stroke. He’s hitting .266 with 1 HR and 10 RBIs on the young season after clubbing 32 HRs last year.
The Rangers are fighting with consistency as they sit 1 game over .500 after 15 games. They’re still atop of the division with Seattle just a half-game out as the AL West has beaten up on each other in the early going. OF Adolis Garcia powers the club with a .312 BA, 7 HR and 23 RBIs.
Mariners at Rangers projected starters
RHP Luis Castillo vs. LHP Andrew Heaney
Castillo (1-4, 4.40 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 28 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K Saturday against Colorado Rockies at Coors Field
- 3 career starts vs. Texas: 0-3, 4.91 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 19 K in 14 2/3 IP
- Current Rangers hitters have hit .323 in 71 plate appearances off Castillo
Heaney (0-2, 6.35 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 17 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K Friday against Atlanta Braves
- Last 5 starts vs. Seattle: 1-2, 5.25 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 27 K in 24 IP
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Mariners at Rangers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Rangers +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+140) | Rangers +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Mariners at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 4, Rangers 3
Moneyline
One look at Castillo’s numbers and you begin to wonder if the 31-year-old is starting to decline. That’s not the case. He has been victimized by a .392 BABIP. His fastball velo is still 95.1 mph, and his xERA is 2.86 – a far cry from his actual ERA at 4.40. His barrel and exit-velocity numbers are in the midrange, so his season should come back around.
He was beyond filthy with 7 shutout IP at Coors Field last time out, and I look for him to keep that momentum rolling. Take the MARINERS -115.
Run line/Against the spread
I’m passing on the RL here because I’d like to see more value picking a road team to cover a -1.5.
I love LUIS CASTILLO OVER 5.5 K’S (+100). Texas doesn’t strike out a lot, but he had 9 K’s in his last 2 starts – including 9 in Coors Field.
Over/Under
Both games have rocked the Under 9, and I expect it to hit again. These teams are 3-6-1 O/U in their last 10 meetings. The Over is 2-8 in Seattle’s last 10 and 5-5 in Texas’ last 10. It’s expected to be 76 degrees with a 16-mph wind blowing toward the left-field foul pole.
Take the UNDER 9 (-120).
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