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The Seattle Mariners (78-61) and the Tampa Bay Rays (85-55) open a 4-game series Thursday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 2-1
The Mariners opened a 10-game road trip with a pair of interleague series against the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds. Seattle won just 1 of 3 games in both series and it has fallen out of 1st place in the AL West after a brief stay atop the division, although it still occupies an AL Wild Card.
The M’s are just 3-5 in the past 8 games overall and the Over is 3-1-1 in the previous 5 outings.
The Rays rebounded with wins on Wednesday and Tuesday to win the series after being tripped up by the Boston Red Sox Monday to start a 3-game set. Tampa is a healthy 11-4 across the past 15 games overall, and 9-3 in the previous 12 outings on its home field.
Mariners at Rays projected starters
RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Zack Littell
Castillo (11-7, 3.19 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 169 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H (2 HR), 2 BB and 2 K in 8-7 road win vs. the New York Mets Saturday
- 2023 road splits: 4-4, 3.99 ERA (79 IP, 35 ER), 13 HR, .249 opponent batting average (OBA) in 13 starts
- 2023 vs. Tampa Bay: No-decision, 6 IP, 6 R (4 ER), 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 7-6 home win July 2
Littell (3-4, 4.69 ERA) makes his 11th start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 63 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 7-6 road loss in 11 innings vs. the Cleveland Guardians Saturday
- 2023 home splits: 1-1, 6.04 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 8 HR, .291 OBA in 4 starts and 6 relief appearances
- 2023 vs. Seattle: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 7-6 road loss July 2 in a relief appearance
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Mariners at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:22 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Rays +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+125) | Rays +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Mariners at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Rays 3
Moneyline
The MARINERS (-135) are a solid play behind their most consistent pitcher as they look to fire the first salvo in this potential playoff series preview.
The difference is on the hill, as Castillo has won 7 of his 10 decisions in the past 15 starts, and he is 5-0 with a 1.02 WHIP across his previous 7 appearances.
Littell has really struggled at Tropicana Field, surrendering 8 of his season’s 11 homers allowed under the dome. He has a 6.04 ERA in 28 1/3 IP at home, vs. a 3.60 ERA in 35 IP on the road.
Run line/Against the spread
The MARINERS -1.5 (+125) should be able to get to Littell early and often, especially with the white-hot OF Julio Rodriguez smashing the ball lately. Facing J-Rod is bad news for the homer-prone Littell.
Seattle comes with a little risk, however. While it covered the run line as a favorite in the getaway day game in Cincinnati on Wednesday, the M’s are just 3-5 in the past 8 as favorites while covering the run line just once.
Over/Under
OVER 8 (-120) is the lean, but go with a half-unit or less.
Castillo isn’t likely to concede much in his time on the bump, but this is a play against Littell and his penchant for serving up homers at The Trop.
The Over is on a 3-1-1 run for the M’s too, and is 11-6 in the past 17 games overall for the Rays.
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