The Seattle Mariners (21-23) visit the San Diego Padres (27-17) Friday at Petco Park for the first of their three-game set at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego have won six straight—sweeping both the Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals—and is 9-1 in the last 10 games and 14-6 in the past 20.
Seattle were just swept in a three-game set with the Detroit Tigers Monday-Wednesday and is just 3-7 in the last 10 games.
RHP Chris Flexen is making his eighth start for the Mariners. Flexen is 4-1 with a 3.46 ERA (39 IP, 15 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 this season.
- Last outing: Win, 7-3, in 5 2/3 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 0 K last Friday vs. the Cleveland Indians.
- Career vs. the Padres: 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA (3 IP, 3 ER), 4 BB and 2 K in his only career start against San Diego (2017).
RHP Chris Paddack is the projected starter for the Padres. Paddack is 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 across seven starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K in San Diego’s 13-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday.
- Career vs. the Mariners: 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA (18 IP, 6 ER), 0.78 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 over three starts.
- Vs. Mariners on the current roster: 32 at-bats with a .188/.270/.313 slash line, 8/4 K/BB, 1 HR and 4 RBIs.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Mariners at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mariners +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-115) | Padres -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Mariners 5, Padres 4
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the MARINERS (+170) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a quarter unit because Seattle is 6-1 in Flexen’s seven starts, and I’m low on Paddack because of his limited pitching arsenal.
I’m a sucker for Seattle’s First 5 Innings value since I like Flexen more than Paddack but am laying off the full-game upset because the Mariners’ bullpen is mediocre and the Padres’ relief unit is elite.
Also, Paddack predominantly uses two pitches (fastball and changeup), and I’m thinking Seattle’s struggling lineup could bust its slump vs. the predictable Paddack.
It’s not like Paddack’s fastball is extraordinary either since he grades in the 25th percentile for fastball spin and 23rd percentile in chase rate.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the MARINERS +1.5 (-115) for a three-fourths unit because it’s a wiser play than Seattle outright.
Furthermore, it’s a tight window we are trying to fit this Seattle upset into considering San Diego is one of the hottest teams in the Majors.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a “lean” to the Over 7.5 (-115) because of the reduced juice, it’s a fade of the market, and these teams have a combined 9-5 O/U record when these starters are on the bump.
However, I’m somewhat banking on the Mariners getting to Paddack, and the Padres’ lineup is fully healthy and one of the best in the Majors. So I’m just going to stay away from the total.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]