The Seattle Mariners (68-58) and Oakland Athletics (70-56) cap off a two-game series at Oakland Coliseum Tuesday with a 3:37 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 10-5 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 over 133 1/3 IP through 23 starts.
- Owns a fine 2.92 ERA with 24 2/3 IP over four starts in August.
- Has been much better at home (2.70 ERA) than on the road (4.92 ERA).
LHP Cole Irvin is the projected starter for the Athletics. He is 9-11 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 across 141 1/3 IP over 24 starts.
- Owns a 1.71 ERA over his last three starts at home.
- Is a fly-ball pitcher (35.9% ground balls) who has been very fortunate in keeping balls in the yard. His home run/fly ball rate is an ultra-low 6.7%.
Mariners at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:51 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mariners +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Athletics -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-170) | Athletics -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Athletics 6, Mariners 5
Money line (ML)
Seattle beat Oakland 5-3 Monday and has rallied after some early-August troubles to go 9-3 over its last 12 games. The Mariners have held foes to 3 or fewer runs in eight of those contests.
Oakland is a near inverse of Seattle’s recent trend. The Athletics were 9-2 over their first 11 games this month but are 2-7 with a 4.79 ERA since Aug. 15.
There is room for regression to the mean on both sides, hurting Seattle and helping Oakland. In the broader view, the A’s have been held back by an 18-22 record in 1-run games.
TAKE OAKLAND (-155).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on pricing that figures to obscure the true odds in between.
Over/Under (O/U)
There is a significant fade lean to these starting pitchers. Both are toting around expected-ERA figures that are about a run higher than their somewhat luck-aided surface figures, and both have substandard lines against the nines they face today (Oakland .805 OPS vs. Flexen, Seattle .957 OPS vs. Irvin).
Oakland Coliseum tends to be more of a hitter’s park in day games. The weather report for Tuesday calls for cool temps but a good deal of humidity and an outward breeze.
The best play in this meeting is the OVER 8.5 (-125).
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