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The Seattle Mariners (19-15) and Minnesota Twins (19-14) clash Monday as they swing into a 4-game series in Minneapolis. The opener at Target Field has a scheduled start time of 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: 1st meeting of 2024; Seattle took 4 of 7 games in 2023
Seattle is coming off taking 2 of 3 games at Houston over the weekend and is 7-3 with a tidy 2.02 ERA over its last 10 games.
The Twins lost to the Boston Red Sox 9-2 Sunday, snapping a 12-game win streak. Since April 22, Minnesota has smacked an .876 OPS while scoring 6.62 runs per game.
Mariners at Twins projected starters
RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
Castillo (3-4, 3.46 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 41 2/3 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 3-2 win vs. Atlanta Braves Tuesday
- Career vs. Twins: 1-1, 5.63 ERA (24 IP, 15 ER), 28 H, 7 BB, 31 in 5 starts
- Owns a 2.86 ERA, allowing a mere .416 OPS over his last 3 starts
Woods Richardson (1-0, 2.45 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 14 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 6-5 win at Chicago White Sox Tuesday
- Has never faced Mariners before
- Owns a 4.07 ERA in 24 1/3 career IP
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Mariners at Twins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:43 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mariners -126 (bet $126 to win $100) | Twins +108 (bet $100 to win $108)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+136) | Twins +1.5 (-164)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -102)
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Mariners at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Twins 4
Moneyline
The Mariners took 2 of 3 from the Twins when these 2 clubs last met at Target Field. Seattle is 7-3 over its last 10 road games.
Castillo has pitched quite well of late after a dodgy start to his 2024 campaign. He thrives on 5 days of rest, which is his interval coming into this start. Castillo gives the visiting nine a significant mound edge in this match-up, and the Twins figure to be a couple games too far out over their skis with their record.
BACK THE MARINERS (-126).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS; the Seattle side above has better relative value.
Over/Under
The Over is 5-2 across the last 7 series meetings.
Castillio is still the preferred side of this pitching match-up, but the Twins bring a lot of lefty bats to the party, and that cuts into a Castillo weakness.
Actual-vs.-expected offense produced would indicate more offense in the tank for both sides. The Twins have played a particularly tough slate of pitchers, so they are a continuing pick to click with the bats (and likely an auto Over lean in many upcoming games).
Both bullpens have top-10 ERAs. And both are in fade territory with overall expectations relative to those surface figures.
TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-120).
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