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The Seattle Mariners (50-49) and Minnesota Twins (53-48) open a 3-game set at Target Field on Monday. First pitch is at 7:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 2-2
The Mariners had a 3-game winning streak snapped with a 4-3 defeat against the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday. The M’s have played fairly well of late, going 12-8 in the last 20 games and 16-14 over the last 30. They are 21-24 on the road and 10-10 against the AL Central. These teams met last week in Seattle with Minnesota taking 2 of 3.
Minnesota is surging, winning 3 in a row and 8 of 10. The Twins have opened a 3-game division lead as they’ve gone 13-7 over the last 20. They hit well in the series last week with 10-3 and 6-3 victories before falling 5-0 in the finale. The Twins are 29-22 at home and 10-6 against the AL West.
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Mariners at Twins projected starters
RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Kenta Maeda
Castillo (6-7, 3.04 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 118 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 11 K in the 6-3 loss against the Twins Wednesday
- 4 career starts vs. the Twins: 1-1, 6.88 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 22 K in 17 IP
Maeda (2-5, 5.10 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 42 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 9 K in the 6-3 win vs. the Mariners Wednesday
- 2 career starts vs. Mariners: 0-0, 2.61 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 16 K in 10 1/3 IP
Mariners at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Twins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+145) | Twins +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mariners at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Twins 4
Moneyline
Castillo wasn’t terrible against the Twins Wednesday, but they touched him up for 2 HRs that led to the 3 ER. He has allowed 2 HRs in 5 of his last 6 starts. Only 1 of those starts was on the road, though. The Twins are hot, but they’ve beaten up on some lesser teams in the Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox. I’m not enamored with them despite the success, and Castillo is an advantage over Maeda.
Take the MARINERS -115.
Run line/Against the spread
I like the Twins’ side of the RL here, I just don’t like the price. They are also just 22-27 on the RL at home this year. Unless the price drops to -165 or better, PASS.
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Over/Under
The Twins have cashed an Over in 7 of 8 games, and 2 of the 3 between the sides last week went Over. The Over has cashed in Castillo’s last 5 starts. It has cashed in Maeda’s last 3 starts.
The total seems like a good spot to LEAN OVER 8 (-115).
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