The Seattle Mariners (2-1) face the Minnesota Twins (1-2) Monday for their four-game series finale at the Target Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 6-4 featuring two impressive outings from Mariners LHP Robbie Ray Friday and RHP Logan Gilbert Saturday.
However, Minnesota took the third game 10-4 Sunday thanks to a 6 home run performance from its lineup, which included a 1st inning grand slam by first-year Mariner C Gary Sanchez who joined the team following seven years with the New York Yankees.
Mariners at Twins: Projected starters
RHP Chris Flexen vs. RHP Dylan Bundy
Flexen was 14-6 in 2021 with a 3.61 ERA (179 2/3 IP, 72 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 over 31 starts.
- 2021 vs. Twins: 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 13 K and 2 BB in 2 starts.
- vs. Twins on the current roster: 4.31 FIP with a .341 batting average (BA), .361 wOBA, .384 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 13.3 K% and 88.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 45 plate appearances (PA).
Bundy was 2-9 last season with a 6.06 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 over 19 starts and 4 relief appearances with the Los Angeles Angels.
- 2021 vs. Mariners: 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 BB and 7 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance.
- vs. Mariners on the current roster: 2.23 FIP with a .303 BA, .346 wOBA, .410 xSLG, 27.8 K% and 86.1 mph EV in 36 PA.
Mariners at Twins odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-180) | Twins -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Mariners at Twins prediction and picks
Prediction
Mariners 8, Twins 4
Money line
GIMME the MARINERS (+110) for 1 unit as a fade against Bundy as the Twins’ starter. The market continues to support Bundy who was a former No. 4 overall pick in the 2011 draft and is now on his third team.
Bundy has a career 4.46 FIP and graded in the bottom-third of the MLB last season in EV, xSLG, expected wOBA, barrel rate and whiff rate, according to Statcast.
Seattle and Minnesota’s lineups are equal but the Mariners have much better bullpen pitching. Even if Flexen doesn’t give Seattle a quality start, the Mariners could still rundown the Twins.
BET the MARINERS (+110).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Flexen pitched better at home than on the road last season and gave up 5 ER over 5 IP in his one start in Minnesota.
This rules out both the pricey Mariners +1.5 (-180) and the chunky Mariners -1.5 (+170) tickets despite my predicted score.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the OVER 9.5 (-105) if at all because I’m high on both lineups entering 2022, the weather forecast is predicting nearly 14 mph winds blowing out to centerfield and the Twins are 87-69-9 O/U since the beginning of last season.
However, most of the market is backing the Over here and I hate following the herd in sports betting.
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