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The Seattle Mariners (18-15) and Houston Astros (12-21) wrap up a 3-game series at Minute Maid Park on Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Mariners won 5-0 Saturday behind RHP Logan Gilbert as moderate underdogs (+125) as the Under (7.5) cashed. Seattle has won 3 of the past 5 games, while going 12-5 since April 15. The Under is 10-0-1 in the past 11 games, while the total has gone low at a 20-2-1 clip in the past 23 outings.
The Astros had won 5 of 6 games prior to Saturday’s loss, as Houston had started to show signs of life after some uncharacteristic early-season struggles. The offense has picked up the pace, averaging 7.5 runs per game in 6 outings prior to Saturday’s shutout loss. The Under is still 13-2-1 in the past 16 outings, as the pitching he allowed 5 or fewer runs in 4 straight, and 8 of the past 9 outings.
Mariners at Astros projected starters
RHP Bryce Miller vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Miller (3-2, 2.04 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 0.88 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 35 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 2-1 home win vs. Atlanta Braves last Monday
- 2024 road splits: 1-1, 1.64 ERA, 11 IP, 2 ER, 7 H (2 HR), 5 BB, 12 K with .179 opponents’ batting average (OBA) and 1.09 WHIP in 2 starts
Brown (0-4, 9.78 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 2.22 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 23 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 5 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in 10-9 home win in 10 innings vs. Houston Astros on Tuesday
- 2024 home splits: 0-1, 4.70 ERA, 15 1/3 IP, 9 R (8 ER), 14 H (3 HR), 7 BB, 15 K with .250 OBA and 1.37 WHIP in 3 starts
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Mariners at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:08 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Astros -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-210) | Astros -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Astros 3
Moneyline
The MARINERS (+100) are a solid play at even-money in this series finale.
It’s a simply reason to take Seattle — starting pitcher. Miller has been sharp all season, and a strong Braves offense was confounded trying to solve him last time out.
The Astros (-120) are favored despite the fact Brown is going for the home side. He has been atrocious this season, allowing 5 or more runs in 3 of his past 5 starts, while conceding 5 HR in the past 5 starts.
Run line/Against the spread
The Mariners +1.5 (-210) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, which is way too much risk for not enough reward. If you like Seattle, play it straight up, especially behind one of its best pitchers.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Under has dominated for both of these teams. The total has gone low in all 6 of Miller’s starts, too, while going an amazing 20-2-1 in the past 23 games.
For the Astros, the Under is actually 2-1 in Brown’s past 3 assignments, mainly due to a lack of offensive support. The opposition has scored 5 or more runs in each of his 6 starts to date.
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