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The Seattle Mariners (66-55) open a 3-game series against the Houston Astros (70-52) on Friday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 5-2
The Mariners picked up a 3rd straight win with a 6-4 victory over the Kansas City Royals Thursday. Seattle is in 3rd place in the AL West and is 6 games behind the Texas Rangers atop the division and 1/2 game back of the Toronto Blue Jays for the final AL Wild Card.
The Astros cruised to a 12-5 victory over the Miami Marlins Wednesday for a 2nd consecutive win. Houston is in 2nd place in the AL West, 2 1/2 games back of Texas, and holds the 2nd AL Wild Card.
Mariners at Astros projected starters
RHP Bryce Miller vs. RHP J.P. France
Miller (7-4, 4.04 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 91 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2R (1 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 5-3 home loss vs. Baltimore Orioles Sunday
- 2023 road stats: 2-2, 5.15 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 21 ER) over 7 starts
- One career start vs. Astros: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 3-1 home win on May 7
France (9-3, 2.74 ERA) makes his 17th start and 18th appearance. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 102 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 11-3 home win vs. Los Angeles Angels Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 4-1, 3.58 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 20 ER) in 8 starts
- One career start vs. Mariners: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 7-5 road loss on May 6
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Mariners at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-165) | Astros -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Mariners 3
Moneyline
France has been credited with a win in each of his 4 starts since the All-Star break, so I’ll take the ASTROS (-145) at home in Friday’s divisional matchup. Both of these teams have had recent stretches of success, but Houston has the slight edge at home.
Run line/Against the spread
Go ahead and PASS on wagering on the run line in this game as the Mariners should keep this game competitive. That being said, I wouldn’t take Seattle with the run of insurance unless you can get it at -160 odds or better.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (+100) is the play Friday with Miller and France pitching well in recent starts. Miller has given up 1 or fewer earned runs in 4 of his 6 starts since the All-Star break, while France has surrendered 2 or fewer earned runs in his last 4 starts.
The Under is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings this season.
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