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The Houston Astros (86-72) welcome the Seattle Mariners (81-77) to Minute Maid Park Wednesday for the finale of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mariners vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 7-5
The Astros beat the Mariners 4-3 in the 2nd game of the series Tuesday after losing 6-1 to open it Monday.
Houston has lost 2 of its last 3 yet is 4-2 over its last 6. The Astros have found a rhythm offensively, scoring 8 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 games. They are 46-34 at home and 81-77 against the spread (ATS).
The Mariners beat the Texas Rangers in 2 of 3 prior to facing Houston after losing 2 of 3 to the New York Yankees before that. They are 35-45 on the road and 68-90 ATS.
Mariners at Astros projected starters
RHP George Kirby vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi
Kirby (13-11, 3.60 ERA) makes his 33rd start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 185 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 8-2 road win over the Texas Rangers Friday
- 2024 away stats: 7-6, 4.03 ERA (102 2/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 18 starts
- Career vs. Astros: 2-0, 1.56 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 in 6 starts
Kikuchi (9-9, 4.19 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 169 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 3-1 home win over the Los Angeles Angels Thursday
- 2024 home stats: 4-7, 4.13 ERA (98 IP, 45 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 17 starts
- Career vs. Mariners: 1-0, 0.52 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 0.87 WHIP, 11.9 K/9 in 3 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mariners at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+140) | Astros +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Astros 3
Moneyline
BET MARINERS (-135).
The Mariners have 2 things: The better starting pitching and the motivation to play their best. Houston has clinched the AL West and a playoff spot, and the Mariners are still on the outside looking in, starting the day 2 1/2 games out of the final Wild Card spot.
Seattle has won 4 of Kirby’s last 5 starts as well and has won 4 of its last 6 games. It has scored at least 5 runs in 4 of its last 5 games, so as long as Kirby can keep Houston’s offense as bay, Seattle should be able to come out on top. Back MARINERS (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no great value here.
The Mariners are too risky as a run-line favorite and aren’t worth a play while the Astros are too expensive as a run-line underdog considering they’ve already clinched a playoff spot.
Over/Under
BET OVER 7 (-105).
Both offenses have been hot over the last week. The Mariners are 3-1-1 O/U in their last 5 games, scoring at least 6 runs in 3 of those games. They have allowed at least 4 runs in 3 of their last 4 games as well.
The Astros are also 3-1-1 O/U in their last 5 and have given up at least 6 runs in 2 of their last 3 games. Considering those trends, back OVER 7 (-105).
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