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The Seattle Mariners (44-32) and the Cleveland Guardians (45-26) wrap up a 3-game series Thursday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 3-2
The Mariners posted an 8-5 victory in Tuesday’s series opener, cashing as +124 underdogs with the Over (8.5) hitting. However, it was all Guardians Wednesday with Cleveland winning 8-0 as a moderate -149 favorite and the Over (7.5) just coming through.
Seattle was shut out for the first time since May 30 when they were blanked at home 4-0 by the Houston Astros. The last time the Mariners were shut out on the road was May 23 in a 5-0 loss at the New York Yankees.
Despite Wednesday’s loss, the Mariners are still 8-2 in the past 10 games, while cashing the Over in 3 of the past 4 outings.
The Guardians avoided a season-high 4-game losing streak with the emphatic shutout win. Cleveland is still 5-4 in the past 9 games, while the Over has connected in 3 consecutive outings.
Mariners at Guardians projected starters
RHP Luis Castillo vs. LHP Logan Allen
Castillo (6-7, 3.32 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 89 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 3-2 home victory vs. Texas Rangers Friday
- 2024 road splits: 2-4, 3.76 ERA (40 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.20 WHIP, .227 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 5 HR, 8.2 K/9 in 7 starts
- 2024 vs. Guardians: 1 start, loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 5-2 home defeat April 2
- Career vs. Guardians: 1-4, 4.50 ERA (42 IP, 21 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 in 8 starts
Allen (7-3, 5.30 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 69 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 3-1 victory at Toronto Blue Jays Friday
- 2024 home splits: 2-0, 7.33 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.67 WHIP, .319 OBA, 6 HR, 8.1 K/9 in 5 starts
- Career vs. Mariners: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 0 ER), 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 1 start, an 8-0 road victory April 3
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mariners at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:17 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Guardians -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+150) | Guardians +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mariners at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 6, Guardians 4
Moneyline
The MARINERS (-110) are a good play on getaway day as the pitching matchup is tipped in their favor.
Castillo has been a lot more consistent than the southpaw Allen, who has been trampled at home. Teams are taking batting practice off of the Cleveland southpaw at Progressive Field this season. The veteran Castillo has pitched rather evenly both at home and on the road. Advantage Seattle.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a little more adventurous, consider Mariners -1.5 (+150) on the run line. Obviously, do not bet the moneyline and run line together. Divvy up a FULL UNIT between the 2 wagers if you opt to go that route.
In Seattle’s past 3 wins, it has won by 2 or more runs in each. In 4 of the team’s past 6 road victories, Seattle also has won by 2 or more runs. So, if you like the M’s, you should like them to cash on the run line, too.
Over/Under
OVER 8.5 (-105) is worth a look in this day game.
The Over has cashed in each of the first 2 games of this series. Plus, we have a Cleveland starting pitcher with an ERA north of 7 at home, while being hit to the tune of .319 at Progressive Field. The Mariners bats should come alive after getting blanked in Tuesday’s contest.
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