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The Seattle Mariners (43-31) and the Cleveland Guardians (44-25) begin a 3-game series Tuesday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 2-1
The Mariners are coming off a 3-game sweep at T-Mobile Park against the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers, outscoring them 15-7. The M’s have won 7 of the past 8 games, but they lost the last time they were underdogs, falling 3-2 in 10 innings to the Chicago White Sox Thursday. Seattle has cashed the Under in 4 of its past 5 games.
The Guardians dropped 2 of 3 games in Toronto over the weekend, and they’re 1-3 in the past 4 games, all on the road. But home field has been kind to Cleveland as it has won 10 of the past 12 games at Progressive Field. The Under cashed in 4 of the past 5 Guardians games and is 9-3 in the past 12.
Mariners at Guardians projected starters
RHP Bryce Miller vs. RHP Triston McKenzie
Miller (5-5, 3.48 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 82 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 2-1 home win in 10 innings vs. White Sox Wednesday
- 2024 road splits: 1-3, 5.94 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.20 WHIP, .236 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 9 HR, 10 BB, 21 K in 6 starts
- Never faced Guardians before; pitched in 39 career games since debut May 2023
McKenzie (3-3, 4.10 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 68 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 5-3 victory at Cincinnati Reds last June 11
- 2024 home splits: 2-1, 3.98 ERA (40 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.52 WHIP, .233 OBA, 10 HR, 27 BB, 39 K in 8 starts
- 2024 vs. Mariners: 1 road start, loss, 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER (5 R), 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K in 5-4 setback April 1
- Career vs. Mariners: 0-3, 8.16 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.60 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 4 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mariners at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:32 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-210) | Guardians -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mariners at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 4, Guardians 3
Moneyline
The MARINERS (+100) are a solid play as even-money underdogs.
The Guardians (-120) are 21-8 at home, so it won’t be easy, but Cleveland has struggled a little lately, losing 3 of the past 4 games, while dropping 2 of the previous 3 at home.
Seattle has rocketed to a 9-game lead in the AL West, as it has had it on cruise control lately. The M’s have picked up 7 wins in the past 8 tries, while going 16-5 in the past 21 outings. Keep striking while the iron is hot.
Run line/Against the spread
The Mariners +1.5 (-210) will cost 2.1 times your potential return. That’s a little too expensive even if you’re looking for a little insurance by getting 1½ runs.
If you like Seattle, just play it straight up on the moneyline.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the best play on the board as Miller and McKenzie have put up some pretty good numbers this season.
Miller has posted quality starts in 3 of his past 4 outings, including 2 scoreless performances in the past 3 assignments. The Under is 4-1-1 in the past 6 games for the Mariners, while going 6-4 in the past 10 road outings.
For the Guardians, the Under is 5-2-1 in the past 8 starts by McKenzie, while the total has gone low in 4 of the past 5 games, and 7 of the previous 9 outings for Cleveland.
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