The Seattle Guardians (2-5) open a 3-game series against the Cleveland Guardians (5-2) Friday afternoon. First pitch for the Guardians’ home opener at Progressive Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 3-1
The Guardians lost 3-0 at the Mariners Opening Day but rebounded by taking the final 3 games of that opening series, outscoring Seattle 17-9. Cleveland then went to Oakland and took 2 of 3, so it has won 5 of 6 since dropping the season opener.
The Mariners dropped 2 of 3 games to the visiting Los Angeles Angels after the Guardians left town. Seattle fell 4-3 (as a +145 underdog) to L.A. and SP Shohei Ohtani in Wednesday’s series finale. The Under 7.5 cashed by a hook, snapping a 3-0 Over run for the M’s.
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Mariners at Guardians projected starters
RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Aaron Civale
Gilbert (0-1, 1.50 ERA) makes his 2nd start of the season, both against the Guardians. He allowed 1 ER — a solo HR by 1B Josh Naylor — on 4 hits and a walk with 7 K’s across 6 innings in a hard-luck, 2-0 loss Saturday to Cleveland.
- Last season on the road: 8-1, 3.16 ERA (102 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 98 K, .233 opponent batting average (OBA) in 18 starts
- Last season during the day: 5-3, 2.85 ERA (79 IP, 25 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 84 K, .214 OBA in 14 starts
Civale (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start of the season. He was on the winning end of Saturday’s 2-0 contest vs. Cleveland, twirling 7 scoreless innings of 2-hit, 1-walk ball, while striking out 3.
- Last season at home: 4-3 3.80 ERA (45 IP, 19 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 49 K in 9 starts
- Last season during the day: 2-4, 5.50 ERA (37 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 44 K, .259 OBA in 8 starts
Mariners at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Guardians -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+165) | Guardians +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mariners at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 4, Guardians 2
Moneyline
SEATTLE (-105) is worth a look on the road as the Mariners look to spoil the home opener for the Guardians (-115).
While Civale was amazing in the 1st matchup at T-Mobile Park, Gilbert was pretty good himself. The Mariners just didn’t give him any run support, but Gilbert showed last season he has a penchant for bouncing back after a loss. He lost back-to-back starts just once last season, and the Mariners were 6-1 in his last 7 starts of 2022.
Run line/Against the spread
SEATTLE -1.5 (+165) is worth a small play.
The thing about a home opener is that the home team players can’t be fully focused. They’re dealing with finally getting to their summer homes in Cleveland after a long spring training, and they might be dealing with getting tickets for family and friends. It can be a little overwhelming.
While the Mariners have lost 5 of the past 6, they should be all business.
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Over/Under
UNDER 7 (-105) is the lean.
The Over cashed in 2 of the final 3 meetings in Seattle, but that Under was the matchup between Civale and Gilbert.
While I expect a little more offense Friday afternoon than we saw in the 1st matchup between these pitchers, there will also be a breeze from 6-9 mph blowing directly from center field into the face of the batters, keeping the ball down.
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