The Seattle Mariners (21-21) and Boston Red Sox (23-20) finish up a 3-game set at Fenway Park Wednesday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The first 2 games of this series has been on different swings of the pendulum. The Mariners won 10-1 Monday night, but it was Boston slugging away in a 9-4 victory Tuesday. Seattle has been stuck in neutral as a .500 ballclub thus far, going 6-4 and 11-9 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively.
Tuesday’s win snapped a 4-game skid for the Red Sox. They slugged 3 home runs as the wind was blowing out in Fenway. Japanese-import OF Masataka Yoshida drove in 3 runs in what has been a productive start for him stateside. He’s hitting .301 with 6 homers and 27 RBIs.
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Mariners at Red Sox projected starters
LHP Marco Gonzales vs. RHP Brayan Bello
Gonzales (3-0, 4.42 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 36 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 9-2 road victory vs. Detroit Tigers Friday
- Last 5 starts vs. Red Sox: 1-2, 5.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 24 K in 25 2/3 IP
Bello (2-1, 5.01 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 23 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 5-2 road victory vs. Atlanta Braves last Wednesday
- Has not faced the Mariners in his career
- Last 3 starts: 2-0, 2.81 ERA, 16 K in 16 IP
Mariners at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:17 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-185) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mariners at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Mariners 3
Moneyline
The Red Sox are 10-5 against left-handed starters this year despite hitting 20 points lower against lefties (.742 OPS) than righties (.806). The weather figures to keep this one lower scoring, and Gonzales has a 6.30 ERA in 2 starts at Fenway. Seattle is just 2-9 in its last 11 meetings with Boston.
Take RED SOX (-120) at a pretty reasonable price.
Run line/Against the spread
Boston’s last 5 wins have been by multiple runs, but Seattle has the best bullpen ERA in baseball at 2.83. As mentioned, the weather should keep scoring down, which we’ll touch upon in the total section.
As such, PASS.
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Over/Under
It’s expected to be 52 degrees with a 14-mph breeze blowing in from the Green Monster. The chilly conditions and moderate breeze should keep the ball in the park. Despite his bloated ERA, Bello has really pitched well of late. While both teams slugged with the wind blowing out the last two nights, this is a good number to go UNDER 9.5 (-110).
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