2. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Height: 6’1″ Weight: 218
40-Yard Dash: N/A
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: N/A
Broad Jump: N/A
3-Cone Drill: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
60-Yard Shuttle: N/A
Bio: Tua Tagovailoa’s story is probably well-known by this point. A five-star recruit and the No. 1 overall high school player coming out of Hawaii, Tagovailoa had offers from UCLA, USC, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Nebraska and Utah but decided to enroll at Alabama, even with the talented Jalen Hurts in the fold. As a freshman, he was given his star chance at halftime of the national championship of all moments, coming off the bench to lead Alabama to a title in a comeback win for the ages over Georgia.
That propelled him to the starting job over Hurts the following season, and he delivered, throwing for 3,946 yards and 42 touchdowns, against just six interceptions, with a passer rating of 137.5. He followed that up with another strong season this past year, statistically, where he completed 71.2% of his throws for 2,835 yards and 33 touchdowns, with just three interceptions.
The problem, however, is the injury history. His career ended with a severe hip injury but that is not the only concern. He suffered a high ankle sprain earlier last season that required surgery, and he came back for the LSU game to battle with Joe Burrow. On the field, he seems to be a very solid quarterback prospect. The medical piece, however, is a huge question mark — and one that just might be difficult to answer in today’s global climate. How comfortable will a team be drafting him if their own doctors cannot perform a physical examination of him?
Stat to Know: Blitz Tagovailoa at your own peril. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Tagovailoa posted a 64.9% completion rate when blitzed last season, with a remarkable 10.9 yards per attempt on those attempts.
Strengths: The first thing that jumps out watching Tagovailoa is his crisp release and passing mechanics. The ball pops out of his hand very well and his quick release and clean mechanics make him an ideal fit for a modern West Coast offense. He shows great accuracy to virtually every level of the field and also throws with very good anticipation, although not quite at the level of Burrow.
Tagovailoa is very athletic, with the ability to extend plays outside the pocket and make some impressive throws in scramble drill situations. He throws very well on the move and always keeps his eyes downfield in those situations. He was only sacked 10 times last season, and while part of that low number was due to the games he missed, Tagovailoa is quite capable of escaping pressure and extending plays.
While he does not have the most impressive arm in this class, his arm strength is sufficient for almost everything he will be asked to do in the NFL. He might lack some of the downfield juice, yet this would point to more of a usage or scheme limitation than anything else.
Tagovailoa also shows good processing speed on RPO designs, with the ability to read a defender at various levels of the field and make a snap decision based off his reaction to the start of a play. In modern NFL offenses, this is a huge plus.
Weaknesses: As with many athletic quarterbacks, Tagovailoa’s athleticism carries a bit of a double-edged sword. Many times, his Plan B when his primary read is covered is to extend the play with his legs and rely on his athleticism. This might work on Saturdays, even against SEC competition, but it could get him into trouble in the NFL.
Additionally, there are too many occasions of Tagovailoa playing hero ball. He might fight too long in the pocket and try to extend plays too much, and that gets him into trouble both with interceptions (his end-zone interception this season against Tennessee, for example) and with his history of lower-body injuries. He will need to learn to throw the ball away and/or play for the next down when he gets to the NFL, both to limit mistakes and protect himself.
Tagovailoa also benefited from playing with top receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, as well as first-round talent blocking for him. While this should not be used against him in terms of his evaluation, what should be considered as part of his evaluation is how that allowed him to assume far too often. Beacuse of the talent around him, there were times when he would just assume: A.) What the defense was doing; and B.) That his targets would bail him out. That is not a recipe for consistent success. For more on this you can see this video breakdown of his interceptions this season:
Conclusion: Tagovailoa fits perfectly with a modern West Coast offense, rooted in the quick passing game but filled with spread designs and RPO elements. Let him quickly scan the defense pre- and post-snap and get the ball out to his targets in space with room to operate. This will take advantage of his quick release and accuracy in the short areas of the field. Vertical shot plays, often off play-action designs, are the best way to keep defenses honest over the top and give him chances to hit on some deep balls downfield. Asking him to challenge tighter windows in the downfield passing game, something he seemed to shy away from in college, might be asking too much early in his career.
Of course, the biggest question with him is not something I am qualified to answer. Nor are you, unless you happen to be a world-renowned orthopedic surgeon. What is the extent of his hip injury and what limitations, if any, will that place on his career arc?
Comparison: Tagovailoa has a lot of Jimmy Garoppolo to his game, including the quick release and the need for a play-action, RPO heavy offense. The part of his game that he might need to tamp down is his Baker Mayfield side, the passer who seems almost too willing to seek out chaos in and outside of the pocket.