The San Diego Padres (76-75) host the San Francisco Giants (99-53) Thursday for the finale of their three-game set at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco is attempting a series sweep after winning the first two games by a combined score of 14-11.
Season series: Giants lead 9-6.
RHP Logan Webb is San Francisco’s projected starter. Webb is 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA (132 1/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 23 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco’s 6-5 win Friday vs. the Atlanta Braves with 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
- Webb lost 3-2 to San Diego April 30 in his only start against them with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (52 PA): 3.79 FIP with a .340 batting average (BA), .386 wOBA, .356 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 85.6 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Yu Darvish makes his 29th start for the Padres. Darvish is 8-10 with 4.13 ERA (157 IP, 72 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 9 K in San Diego’s 3-2 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday.
- Darvish is 1-1 in three starts against San Francisco this season with a 5.51 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 13 H, 7 BB and 22 K.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (121 PA): 5.88 FIP with a .231 BA, .342 wOBA, .498 xSLG, 26.4 K% and 89.6 mph EV.
Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:51 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Padres -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+140) | Padres +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Prediction
Giants 6, Padres 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the GIANTS (-117) for 1 unit because there’s most likely a fallacy in the market that the Padres will prevent an embarrassing four-game sweep against a division rival with San Diego’s No. 1 starter on the hill. Otherwise, I cannot explain why Giants-Padres is priced as a coin-flip Thursday.
Whether San Francisco is evolved into a much better team or San Diego has waived the white flag on the season, there’s a lot more value in backing the Giants here.
San Diego’s bullpen has nearly double the ERA than San Francisco’s bullpen in September, the Giants’ hitters are top three in several advanced hitting metrics this month and Webb is one of the highest-graded starters in the majors.
Furthermore, San Francisco’s money line is both a sharp and public play. More than two-thirds of cash is wagered and nearly 80% of the bets placed are on the Giants, according to pregame.com at the time of writing. This one-way action has steamed San Francisco up from a slight underdog to a slight favorite.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (+140) for a tiny wager – if at all – because the math supports taking a stab at San Francisco’s run line. The Giants are 17-21 ATS as a road favorite (44.7% cover rate) but the implied win probability of 41.7% based on their run line price.
Also, we are getting the same market movement here as the money line market. Oddsmakers have reacted to the pro-Giants money by moving them up from a run line underdog to a favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-115) for a tiny wager if at all because I much prefer San Francisco’s money line than the total in this spot.
However, San Diego is 18-10 O/U when Darvish gets the start, the Over has cashed in 10 of the last 11 Giants-Padres meetings and San Diego’s pitching staff has the second-worst ERA this month.
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