The San Francisco Giants (97-53) travel down the coast to start a three-game series with the San Diego Padres (76-73) at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Giants lead 7-6.
RHP Kevin Gausman makes his 31st start for the Giants. Gausman is 14-6 with a 2.78 ERA (175 IP, 54 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-4, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 7 K Thursday vs. the Padres.
- Gausman is 2-1 in four starts against San Diego this year with a 2.64 ERA (24 IP, 7 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.3 K/BB.
- Road splits: 8-2 with a 2.11 ERA (98 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.02 WHIP and 4.5 K/BB in 17 starts.
RHP Joe Musgrove is projected to get the nod for the Padres. Musgrove is 11-9 with a 2.99 ERA (165 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 across 28 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Win, 9-6, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 4 K Wednesday at the Giants.
- Musgrove is 1-2 in three starts against San Francisco this season with a 6.75 ERA (16 IP, 5 ER), 17 H, 5 BB and 17 K.
- Home splits: 6-4 with a 2.42 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.02 WHIP and 4.9 K/BB in 14 starts.
Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:57 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Padres -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+145) | Padres +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Prediction
Giants 4, Padres 2
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS (-112) for a tiny unit – if at all – because the Padres’ playoff hopes hang in the balance and Musgrove has been awesome at home this season. However, the Under is my favorite play in this game.
Outside of San Diego’s obvious motivation angle, which is accounted for in the oddsmakers’ pricing, there aren’t many reasons to back the Padres.
The Giants have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting) and also are motivated to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in their NL West divisional race.
San Diego is just 10-25 overall as an underdog and 3-7 as a home underdog while San Francisco is 24-13 overall as a road favorite.
There has to be value in the GIANTS (-112) at a near coin-flip price since they have the best record in baseball and their ace on the hill Tuesday. It seems that the market is undervaluing San Francisco and overrating San Diego, even in September.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because I only “lean” to San Francisco’s money line and don’t like this spot enough to lay it with the Giants -1.5 (+145). On top of that, San Francisco is just 16-21 ATS as a road favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 7.5 (-112) for 1 unit because the Giants are 13-22-2 O/U as road favorites, the Padres are 1-7-2 O/U as home underdogs and San Diego’s lineup has been atrocious this month.
The Padres hitters have the third-lowest WAR and rank 27th in both wOBA and wRC+ in September.
This total is suspiciously low considering how poorly both bullpens have been this month and the Over cashing in eight of the last nine Giants-Padres meetings. Maybe I’m overthinking it but I’m expecting a majority of the market to be on the Over by the time this game starts.
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