The San Francisco Giants (80-44) are still hanging on to the lead in the NL West and open a three-game road series against the New York Mets (61-63) Tuesday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Giants LHP Sammy Long (1-1, 5.72 ERA) makes his ninth appearance of the season in what will be his fifth start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 28 1/3 IP.
- Long has been shuffling back and forth between Triple-A and the majors lately. He held the Colorado Rockies to 1 ER over 2 IP while recording 4 K in his last start with the Giants Aug. 14.
- In 10 minor league appearances this year, half of which came at Triple-A Sacramento, Long has a 1.95 ERA and 13.6 K/9 across 32 1/3 IP.
Mets RHP Tylor Megill (1-2, 3.21 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 56 IP.
- Megill has been very good since his June call-up, but did go through a rough stretch in his first three August starts. He allowed 11 ER over 14 2/3 IP but rebounded last time out to hold the Giants to 1 ER in 6 IP.
- He has made six starts at home, where he has posted a 2.45 ERA and 10.7 K/9 across 29 1/3 IP.
Giants at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Prediction
Mets 5, Giants 3
Money line (ML)
Megill has been very impressive in his first taste of the majors, as he’s missing plenty of bats and while keeping the walks in check. He has been especially good at home and is likely to deliver a second straight strong performance against the Giants.
Long has pitched better than his ERA would suggest, as a 56.2% strand rate has played a key role in his struggles. He isn’t likely to work deep into the game, though, and the pitching edge has to go to Megill.
Back the METS (-115).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Giants come into this game with a 38-25 road record that is second-best in the league. The Mets are 36-23 at home but they average a league-worst 3.51 runs per game in their home park.
This sets up to be a pretty close game and there’s not enough value on either side of the run line. PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under hit in four of the last five games for the Giants and in five of the last six for the Mets. Megill has been very solid through 11 starts and has allowed 2 or fewer runs seven times, while the Mets struggle to score at home.
Neither team is likely to have a big day offensively, and a small play on UNDER 8.5 (-112) looks like the way to go.
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